The Jesus Chronicles: Three Things People Get Wrong about Probability
Lately I’ve seen a flurry of repeated mistakes in reasoning about probability. I realized a primer is needed to correct some people so they can stop making those mistakes (assuming you care about not making mistakes; an alarming number of people don’t, but...Gesù Resistente, Gesù Inesistente
I have successfully produced several debates on the historicity of Jesus with qualified PhDs (live and online; see: Crook; Evans; Goodacre; Waters; and twice now with MacDonald; in Akin and Horn, Horn has multiple masters degrees). But I have long wanted to get one...How Not to Act Like a Crank: On Evaluating Pliny’s Alleged Mention of Nazareth
My first article this month established with extensive evidence that Gnostic Informant (Neal Sendlak) is completely unreliable and cannot be trusted to tell you the truth or get key facts right or even understand how arguments and logic work. Among the copious...The Curious Case of Gnostic Informant: Reaction vs. Research
There was a recent internet storm over Gnostic Informant’s (Neal Sendlak’s) attack video “Refutation of Richard Carrier & the Church of Mythicism,” which is so disjointed and inept (and until its subsequent editing, slanderous and...The Problem with Varieties of Jesus Mythicism
I just published a formal academic review of the new book Varieties of Jesus Mythicism (ed. by John Loftus and Robert Price, Hypatia 2022) in Socio-Historical Examination of Religion and Ministry (SHERM) 4. 1 (Summer 2022): 171‒192. You can buy the review there for...A Bayesian Analysis of the Winling-Michney Thesis on Redlining
Last month I began a three-part series with A Bayesian Analysis of Susannah Rees’s Ishtar-in-the-Manosphere Thesis and A Bayesian Analysis of Kate Loveman’s Pepys Diary Thesis. Today I will conclude with the third random selection from my test set: LaDale C....A Bayesian Analysis of Kate Loveman’s Pepys Diary Thesis
Last week I began a three-part series with A Bayesian Analysis of Susannah Rees’s Ishtar-in-the-Manosphere Thesis. Today I will continue with the second random selection from my test set, Kate Loveman’s “Women and the History of Samuel Pepys’s...A Bayesian Analysis of Susannah Rees’s Ishtar-in-the-Manosphere Thesis
As an ongoing project I’ve selected three articles at random from among credible open-source journals in order to analyze their arguments in a way that makes clear their Bayesian structure, and what grasping this about them can tell us about sound historical...Empirical Logic and Romans 1:3
Paul’s statement in Romans 1:3 that Jesus had “come of the seed of David according to flesh” is one of the most commonly cited pieces of evidence for Paul believing Jesus had been an actual man walking around Palestine (see Argument from...Dennis MacDonald’s Change of Position
I mentioned in my last article (What I Said at the Brea Conference) that I first became aware there that Dennis MacDonald has switched from saying that doubting the historicity of Jesus was improbable but at least plausible, to insisting it’s not even plausible....What I Said at the Brea Conference
Earlier this year I presented at the Pacific regional Society of Biblical Literature conference. My paper’s title in the program was, “Field Update on the Case Against the Historicity of Jesus: Recent Peer-Reviewed Publications For and Against.” Which is now...The Backwards and Unempirical Logic of Q Apologetics
I’ve explained before what “Q” theory is and why it is implausible and should have been abandoned by the Biblical Studies field decades ago (see Why Do We Still Believe in Q?). In short, we can prove conclusively that Luke used Matthew as a source (the...Galatians 1:19, Ancient Grammar, and How to Evaluate Expert Testimony
In Sense and Goodness without God I discuss the evidence ladder (section II.3): reason (logic and mathematics), empirical science, personal experience, historical facts, expert testimony, plausible inference, and pure faith. I show that faith is too unreliable to have...Reading Josephus on James: On Valliant Flunking Literary Theory
History as a field is primarily dependent on literary theory (at least the kind following historical models rather than aesthetic), because most evidence relevant to reconstructing history is textual, and the most crucial category of textual evidence is works of...Doing the Math: Historicity of Jesus Edition
I am a Bayesian epistemologist. And in line with the independent findings of the philosopher of history Aviezer Tucker, I developed and applied under peer review a way to model historical reasoning with Bayes’ Theorem (method, in Proving History; application, in...Get Dr. Carrier’s Latest!
About the Author
Richard Carrier is the author of many books and numerous articles online and in print. His avid readers span the world from Hong Kong to Poland. With a Ph.D. in ancient history from Columbia University, he specializes in the modern philosophy of naturalism and humanism, and the origins of Christianity and the intellectual history of Greece and Rome, with particular expertise in ancient philosophy, science and technology. He is also a noted defender of scientific and moral realism, Bayesian reasoning, and historical methods.
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