The Anthropology Club at Edinboro University has invited me to speak on Bayes’ Theorem Is the Logic of Historical Argument: A Demonstration Comparing the Historicity of Jesus and John Frum. That’s right, I’m going to compare Bayesian arguments for two invented legendary founders of apocalyptic cults, two thousand years apart, yet eerily similar in anthropological conditions (and the pun is intended…this is, after all, in the Erie, PA area!). I’ll also be mentioning that history ought to be a department of anthropology, and thus folded back into the sciences. But the lecture will be about the method, and a brief on the two cases for ahistoricity, and it will be attended by people from many departments (religion, history, philosophy, etc.), and possibly even local churches. It could be interesting.

Of course I’ll be selling and signing books after the talk (including my new on on ancient science). And then I’ll be at the Erie Unitarian Universalist Church (7180 Perry Highway) for a meet & greet with the Erie Atheists & Agnostics after that.

The event is Friday, October 7 (2016), from 3:30-5pm, at the Louis C. Cole Auditorium in Memorial Hall (205 Meadville Street, Edinboro, PA).

The UU meet & greet with local atheists will be the same evening at 6:30pm.

Official description:

Dr. Richard Carrier will explain how all historical arguments can be modeled with Bayes’ Theorem, and how historians, anthropologists, and philosophers can make use of this fact to critique and improve our conclusions about history. This will be illustrated using the example of the historicity of two apocalyptic saviors: Jesus of Nazareth and John Frum. Carrier will show how the anthropological study of the John Frum worshiping Cargo Cults of Melanesia reveals a useful framework for better understanding the early Jesus worshiping Christians of Judea.

I’ll also be throwing in a Bayesian analysis of the historicity of the Holocaust for comparison. Since apologists love to lean on that fallacy of false equivalence.