I’ve argued before that if we presume there was once absolutely nothing, we actually end up with an infinite multiverse (Ex Nihilo Onus Merdae Fit). Which eliminates the fine tuning argument, by statistically guaranteeing any universe will randomly exist, no matter how improbable its arrangement of fundamental properties. Here I walk you through the logic in a way easier to understand and impossible to escape.

Metaphysical Deduction Not Physical Presumption

I want to make perfectly clear from the start that what I am doing here is not what Krauss and others are doing, which they have been rightly criticized by theologians for as missing the point. That a multiverse is inevitable given an initial state of nothing is not because of quantum cosmological calculations showing it’s not just possible but actually likely that a complex universe or even a multiverse would spontaneously arise from any arbitrarily tiny bubble of absolute vacuum. Like the He-Gao-Cai thesis: “Spontaneous Creation of the Universe from Nothing,” Physical Review D 89 (2014). Because that still presupposes the existence of the vacuum, the bubble. They are starting from the assumption that some quantum of space-time exists, and obeys certain laws of physics. That’s still pretty impressive, one must admit. But theists will complain that we then have to explain how that quantum of space-time came about. Why was it there at all? Why does it obey those laws of physics? The theologian’s idea of nothing means absolutely nothing. Not even physics or tiny empty spaces. Hence, missing the point.

Although what I shall do here does combine with the well-established scientific deduction that once “inflation” starts in inflationary models of the universe, it never ends: it is future eternal. Which means even if the whole thing did have a beginning, that there was a first moment of “everything,” infinitely many universes are an inevitable outcome. Simply because the inflationary expansion will continue producing them forever. See Alan Guth’s demonstration in “Quantum Fluctuations in Cosmology and How They Lead to a Multiverse,” Proceedings of the 25th Solvay Conference on Physics (2013), which summarizes his and others’ previous peer reviewed work (assembled in the bibliography).

Notably, even the Borde-Guth-Vilenkin thesis theologians love to cite—which actually only applies if singularities exist, when quantum mechanics entails they don’t: see Gabriele Veneziano, “The Myth of the Beginning of Time,” Scientific American 290 (2004)—does not say our Big Bang was the first one. See the original paper: “Inflationary Spacetimes Are Not Past-Complete,” Physical Review Letters 90 (2003). We could be at the end of trillions of Big Bangs; and exist alongside countless googols more of them, in parallel limbs branching out from the tree of the original expanding inflaton.

And indeed there are already in fact a lot of reasons to conclude a multiverse exists: not only might there be ways to directly observe evidence of it someday (e.g. if another universe has ever collided with ours), it’s also explanatorily superior to theism on every scientific measure. See my summary of six good reasons. And then see the many reasons summarized by Paul Davies, “Multiverse Cosmological Models,” Modern Physics Letters A 19 (2004) and Andrei Linde, “A Brief History of the Multiverse,” Reports on Progress in Physics 80 (2017).

This is all compatible with what’s to follow. And it’s notable physics is finding results congruent with metaphysical certainties deduced from basic logic. Indeed, the following argument tracks closely to the very similar argument of Maya Lincoln and Avi Wasser in “Spontaneous Creation of the Universe Ex Nihilo,” Physics of the Dark Universe 2 (2013): 195–99.

So, to my version of that kind of argument I now turn…

The Only Possible Kind of Absolute Nothing

  • Proposition 1: That which is logically impossible can never exist or happen.

I suppose weirdos like presuppositionalists might try to deny this and assert that logically contradictory states of affairs can exist or happen, but for God stopping it with his magical mind rays. But that’s honestly just tinfoil hat. It’s really hard to fathom what one could even mean by saying logical contradictions can obtain in the real world, that the logically impossible is still nevertheless possible. And most theists really won’t go there. After all, they love the ontological argument, which argues that that which is logically necessary, necessarily exists. They try to get a god to be one of those things. That never works. But still. Finding such a proof is a Holy Grail of theology.

Nevertheless, the very notion that logically necessary things necessarily exist, necessarily entails logically impossible things never exist. Because one of the things that necessarily exists, is the absence of logically impossible things. Otherwise, we could not in fact say logically necessary things necessarily exist. Because that is claiming it’s logically impossible they could “not” exist; but we just admitted logically impossible things can happen! If the logically impossible can actually happen, then it’s possible logically necessary things don’t exist. Down goes the ontological argument.

There are actually good reasons to conclude the logically impossible cannot exist (in any meaningfully relevant sense), but I won’t go further into that here (see Sense and Goodness without God, index, “contradiction, nature of,” and my remarks on the point in response to Reppert). I’ll just say that the following argument is for people who are unwilling or honestly unable to deny this proposition.

  • Proposition 2: The most nothingly state of nothing that can ever obtain, is a state of affairs of zero size lacking all properties and contents, except that which is logically necessary.

This actually follows from Proposition 1, combined with the basic meaning of “absolutely nothing.” The most “nothing” nothing you can ever have, is by removing every possible thing that can be removed, until there is nothing left. Which thus includes any quanta of space or time, as well as laws of physics, particles, and so on. But since you can’t “remove” logically necessary things, or have a logically impossible state of affairs, it is logically impossible for any state of nothing to lack that whose existence or occurrence is logically necessary. Which in turn means it is logically impossible for any state of nothing to behave in a logically contradictory way. Because logical contradictions can never obtain. They therefore cannot happen. So they cannot govern what a “nothing” would do.

That gets us down to the most “nothing” nothing that could ever have obtained, by removing things until there are no more things we can remove without creating a logical contradiction. We can remove all durations of time, until time is a dimensionless point, representing “zero” amount of time. That’s what “no time exists” means. We can remove all height and width and depth, until space is a dimensionless point, representing “zero” amount of space, in every direction. We can remove all matter and energy. So, there are no particles, no contents. And we can remove all rules, properties, and laws of physics. Except anything we can prove is logically necessary. If removing something entails a logical contradiction, we can’t remove it. We are stuck with it. There can never have been a state of being that lacked it.

Which means if you still think that’s not “nothing,” but still something (namely, the presence of every logically necessary thing, and the absence of every logical impossibility), then you are admitting that nothing is logically impossible. And down goes any argument you may have that requires the universe to have come from nothing without a god around. Because “nothing” can never have existed: it’s logically impossible. Therefore we no longer need gods to explain why there is something. That there would be something is logically necessary. By your own admission.

I suspect theists won’t go there. And those who do, will have to abandon their argument that without god we can’t explain why there is something and not nothing. Because they will have just conceded it is logically necessarily the case that there will be something, even without gods. The rest will bite the bullet and admit that yes, when they say that in the absence of gods there once must have been a state of nothing (from which nothing, they will insist, could have come), they can only mean the “nothing” I just described: the logically possible nothing; the one that still isn’t totally nothing, because it still must contain every logical necessity. But, they will be happy to note, it contains nothing else. No contents. No quantities of spacetime. No rules. At least that much of nothing is logically possible. It therefore may once have been the state of things.

Animated gif of a scene from the film Snatch in which a woman running an illegal betting room points out and reads to an attempted robber what's written on the board behind her, that All Bets Are Off, and therefore there is no money for him to steal.

Of course, we don’t actually know that. There has never been any scientific or logical proof that there had to have ever been a state of nothing; of any kind at all. There may well have always been something. Despite many a hypothesis, we have no conclusive proof, logical or scientific, that existence is not past eternal. Actual infinities and infinite pasts are logically possible and therefore cannot be ruled out. And we have no evidence by which to rule them out. Even the BGV thesis doesn’t. Because it only rules them out under conditions we have no evidence actually obtain. Quantum gravity might tank their theorem just as it did the similar theorem of Hawking and Penrose (see links above). The fact of the matter is we don’t know whether singularities are possible (and on current quantum physics, they are not) or what happens when any universe approaches one, because no present physics can explain or predict what happens at that scale. All bets are off.

But here we are just working out what must necessarily be the case if there was ever a state of total nothing, the most empty nothing logically possible. And that means such a nothing-state will be a hypersphere of zero size in all dimensions, with no contents, and governed by no rules or laws, except the laws of logical necessity. Which is at least a plausible hypothesis. We can ask what predicted observations that hypothesis entails, and how well that accords with what we see. So this is what we shall mean by the word Nothing (capitalized) heretofore.

  • Proposition 3: If there was ever Nothing, then nothing governs or dictates what will become of that Nothing, other than what is logically necessary.

This is true by definition, once you accept Proposition 2. So there is no logically consistent way to deny this Proposition without also denying Proposition 2. In fact Proposition 3 is just a restatement of Proposition 2 with respect to the specific absence of “rules” and “properties.” It is logically entailed by that absence, that when there is Nothing, there are also no rules or properties that dictate what will happen to that Nothing or what that Nothing will do.

Which also means the total absence of physical laws. So all cosmology papers arguing for a universe from nothing are invalid for the condition of Nothing, as those papers depend on the existence or operation of certain physical laws or properties. See, for example, this point as made in 1987 by W.B Drees in “Interpretation of The Wave Function of the Universe,” International Journal of Theoretical Physics 26. Only if some such paper proved the physical laws or properties they depend on are logically necessary would they become applicable to Nothing. They could, for instance, someday show how denying that that physical law applies to any state of affairs (even a Nothing-state) entails a logical contradiction. But I am not aware of that having been done.

  • Proposition 4: If nothing governs or dictates what will become of Nothing (other than what is logically necessary), then nothing (other than what is logically necessary) prevents anything from happening to that Nothing.

This is again true by definition. It’s what follows with logical necessity from saying nothing governs what happens to Nothing; because Nothing contains nothing, not even rules or properties that would limit what Nothing can do. So you cannot deny Proposition 4 without denying Propositions 1, 2, or 3.

This entails that the assertion ex nihilo nihil, “from nothing, comes [only] nothing,” is false. Because that is a rule, and Nothing contains no rules. No such rule can therefore exist when there is Nothing, so as to govern that Nothing. Therefore it cannot be the case that only nothing comes from Nothing. In fact we cannot even establish that it is likely that only nothing will come from Nothing.

The only way to challenge this is to disprove Proposition 4. And the only way to disprove Proposition 4 is to prove that it is logically necessary that only nothing come from Nothing. I know of no such proof. None has ever been produced. Not even after over two thousand years of philosophy. There is not only no proof that it is necessarily the case that ex nihilo nihil, there is no proof that that’s even an expected outcome.

It won’t do to say “but we don’t see that rule being violated anywhere now,” because we do not observe Nothing anywhere—everywhere there is something (an expanded spacetime, with contents and properties, governed by now-existent physical laws)—so none of our observations apply to Nothing. In fact, as Nothing entails the total absence of “contents and properties and physical laws,” the very reason we do not observe a violation of ex nihilo nihil is that those extant properties and laws now prevent “just anything” from happening. The only nihil we observe is actually a thing: propertied spacetime. And that thing, being existent, now limits what can happen.

Even insofar as we do observe the violation of ex nihilo nihil, indeed all the time now, in the spontaneous creation and destruction of virtual particles resulting from quantum indeterminacy, this is a highly constrained and ordered violation. It’s governed by limits, laws, and rules. You don’t just get rabbits and deathstars popping in and out, much less then sticking around. Yes, there actually is a calculable quantum probability on present physics of a rabbit or a deathstar popping into existence spontaneously; but it’s an absurdly small probability, because what can and can’t happen now is constrained by the possibilities allowed and disallowed by the specific spacetime we inhabit and its qualities. But when there is Nothing, there is no spacetime (much less the specific kind we inhabit) other than a dimensionless point of it, and no governing qualities.

So, indeed, there can be not just Boltzmann brains but a Boltzmann anything on present physics (as I’ve discussed before). But when even the constrains that make such things unlikely don’t exist anymore, all Boltzmann things necessarily become far more probable—not less. An actual Nothing is therefore even more likely to randomly create rabbits and deathstars. This is a logically necessary fact, that follows necessarily from the fact that when there is Nothing, that which keeps the probability of such outcomes low no longer exists, and therefore nothing remains to keep that probability so low. It doesn’t follow that it’s therefore then a likely outcome. It may indeed still be an absurdly low probability (and I dare say surely is). But it will be so only if, and only because, it is logically necessarily so. And not because of any other rules, laws, or physics.

The principle point is that Proposition 4 entails the probability of Nothing spontaneously becoming anything is not zero. It logically cannot be zero. As it only could be if something existed to stop that happening. And by definition nothing exists when there is Nothing to stop that Nothing from becoming something else. And note that whatever then happens will also be totally uncaused, except insofar as it is caused by Nothing itself. Because whatever happens will be uncaused by anything whatever except the logically necessary fact that Nothing cannot limit what comes to exist. As being Nothing, it lacks any forces or constrains to limit what happens.

Of course, what could then come to exist includes time, space, contents, and properties. And indeed this is true even of rabbits and deathstars. By the very definition of those terms, you can’t spontaneously create those things without also creating a spacetime manifold in which they can exist, complete with laws and properties. For instance, an inalienable property of a rabbit is that it has a nonzero width. And for it to be alive requires change (an active metabolism), which requires a nonzero expanse of time. As well as all the laws of physics needed to realize the rabbit and hold it together, from atomic bonds to inverse square laws, even the basic forces and particles of the Standard Model. Otherwise, it would entail a logical contradiction to say anything else that Nothing spontaneously generated could aptly be called “a rabbit.”

Which means, every possible thing that can arise from Nothing—there being no logical fact nor any other thing to prevent it arising—will in effect be a “universe” in the broadest sense. Even just a rabbit, will actually be a rabbit within some “universe” necessary to materialize a rabbit. No matter what other thing you try to describe as a logically possible outcome of a totally random process, it will in effect either be a universe, or logically entail a universe to contain it. Which will of course include really bizarre universes, including static universes with no (or almost no) time, universes with only one dimension, and so on. But it is logically necessarily the case that no thing can exist without the existence of at least one dimension to contain it; otherwise it “never exists” and “exists nowhere,” which by definition means it does not exist (and thus cannot ever have been “produced” to exist). See my discussion of the Argument from Nonlocality for this point.

So everything that can logically possibly come to exist is, or entails (and thus comes with), a universe of some sort.

Which gets us to the next steps in reasoning…

  • Proposition 5: Every separate thing that can logically possibly happen when there is Nothing (other than Nothing remaining nothing) entails the appearance of a universe.

As just demonstrated.

And:

  • Proposition 6: If there is Nothing, then there is nothing to limit the number of universes that can logically possibly appear.

Unless you can come up with some logical proof showing it is logically necessarily the case that when there is Nothing, only some number n of universes can spontaneously arise. I know of no such proof. Good luck finding one.

  • Proposition 7: If nothing (except logical necessity) prevents anything from happening to Nothing, then every logically possible thing that can happen to Nothing has an equal probability of occurring.

Every logically possible thing that can happen to Nothing is as likely to happen as every other possible thing that can happen. This is a logically necessary truth. So it again cannot be denied without denying Proposition 1. Or, again, Proposition 4, if you want to desperately wrestle again with what it means for Nothing to be ungoverned by any rules about what happens—but you’ll lose every time; because that’s what Nothing logically entails. So the only way out left is to go all the way back to becoming one of those whackadoos who deny Proposition 1. Good luck with that.

In case it’s not obvious, here is why Proposition 7 is logically necessarily the case:

  1. For any one possible thing that can happen to Nothing to be more probable than another, some rule, property, or power would have to exist to make it so.
  2. By definition Nothing contains no rules, properties, or powers.
  3. Therefore, no rule, property, or power would exist to make any one possible thing that can happen to Nothing more probable than another.
  4. Therefore, no possible thing that can happen to Nothing can be more probable than another.

So accepting Proposition 1, and thus Proposition 2, you must accept Proposition 7. As Proposition 7 merely states what is logically necessarily the case when 1 and 2. And 1 and 2 entail that that which is logically necessarily the case must always obtain whenever there is Nothing.

  • Proposition 8: If every logically possible thing that can happen to Nothing has an equal probability of occurring, then every logically possible number of universes that can appear has an equal probability of occurring.

This is logically entailed by the conjunction of Propositions 6 and 7. So again it cannot be denied without denying, again, Proposition 1.

And this is true regardless of the measure problem. There are lots of different ways you can slice up the “outcome” of a totally random process that’s unlimited in how much can happen—how much “stuff,” and in how many configurations, that can arise. But insofar as the “stuff” that pops out is connected to other stuff, it necessarily causally interacts with it, and that logically entails a single causally interacting “system,” which we can call a “universe” in a relevant sense. But when there is Nothing, nothing exists to make it even likely, much less ensure, that only one such “universe” will randomly materialize.

Of course, even within a single causally interacting “system,” and thus within a single “universe,” it is not necessarily the case that every part of it will have the same contents and properties. Eternal inflation, for example, entails an initial chaotic universe will continue splitting off different bubble universes forever, and every one will have different laws, contents, and properties, insofar as it’s possible to. And this is actually what we usually mean by “universe” now: one of those regions of the whole metaverse that shares a common fundamental physics (the same dimensionality of spacetime, the same fundamental constants, and the same causal history). Other regions may differ, e.g. if we fly far enough in space, maybe a trillion lightyears, we might start to enter a region of the universe where the laws and constants and shape and contents start to change.

However, we needn’t account for this in what follows. If it is the case—in other words, if universes in the broad sense (causally interacting systems) can themselves contain even more universes in the narrow sense (regions of a shared fundamental physics), then what follows, follows with even more certainty. Because then there are even more “universes” to make the point with. You will notice eventually how this simply makes the math even stronger, and gets us to the same conclusion with even greater force. Because all adding this does to the math, is increase how many universes a Nothing will inevitably randomly produce.

The converse is also true. If it is somehow the case that there can’t be disconnected systems, that somehow it is logically impossible for Nothing to produce multiple “universes” in the broad sense, then it must necessarily be the case that it will produce, to the same probability, multiple universes in the narrow sense. Because there is only one possible way left that it could be logically impossible for both (a) Nothing to produce more than one causal system and (b) that system be entirely governed by only one physics, is if this universe we find ourselves in is the only logically possible universe. And if that’s the case, then we don’t need any explanation for it. All fine tuning arguments sink immediately. The probability of any universe existing but this one (given that any universe exists at all) is then zero. And the probability of fine tuning without God is then exactly and fully 100%.

I doubt any theist will bite that bullet. I’m pretty sure all will insist that other universes are logically possible. And if other universes are logically possible, it must necessarily be the case that it is logically possible either for different regions of a universe to exhibit different physics or different universes as closed causal systems to exist (with, ergo, different physics). Therefore, by disjunctive logic, if the second disjunct is ruled impossible (“different universes as closed causal systems can exist”), the first disjunct becomes a logically necessary truth (“different regions of a universe can have different physics”). Even if one were to say “there are infinitely many outcomes logically equivalent to a single universe with a single uniform physics” and “therefore” there are as many such outcomes as any version of multiverse and so “it’s fifty fifty” or “the measurement problem gets you” or whatever, Cantor strikes: as all the infinite such possible universes are already contained in possible multiverses and yet there are infinitely many more multiverses possible which cannot be included in the previous infinite set, the cardinality relation of possible multiverses to possible singleverses is still infinitely more; ergo, the probability of getting “a singleverse” rather than “a multiverse” is infinity to one against.

Therefore, when there are no rules governing how many “universes” can randomly arise from Nothing, there must necessarily be either a random number of universes in the broad sense (causally separated systems) or a random number of universes in the narrow sense (regions of different physics within a single causal system), or both. Including, of course, the possibility that that number, either way, will be zero. Which is what it would mean for Nothing to produce nothing, to remain eternally nothing. Ex nihilo nihil, in other words, is simply describing one possible outcome of a true Nothing: the outcome of there being zero things arising.

But as we just confirmed, there is no rule or law that entails the number of things that will arise uncaused from Nothing is zero. In fact, zero is just one possibility out of countless other possibilities: countless other numbers of things, and thus universes, that can arise. And Proposition 6 entails each possible outcome has the same probability as each other possible outcome. Which means no outcome (such as “zero”) is more likely than any other (such as “one” or “ten billion” or “ten to the power of twenty trillion”). Hence…

  • Proposition 9: If when there is Nothing every possible number of universes has an equal probability of occurring, the probability of Nothing remaining nothing equals the ratio of one to n, where n is the largest logically possible number of universes that can occur.

But Proposition 6 entails n is transfinite. There is no maximum possible universes that can arise. This creates difficulties for continuing mathematically here, because no one has fully worked out a mathematics of transfinite probability. We can bypass that problem, however, the same way Archimedes originally did, by adapting the Method of Exhaustion. We’ll get there in a moment.

  • Proposition 10: If Nothing produces a random number of universes, nothing exists to prevent the contents of each of those universes from being equally random.

In other words, if it is logically possible for any universe, upon coming into existence, to have a different set of attributes than another, then each possible collection of attributes is as likely as every other. This follows by logical necessity from the absence of anything that would make it otherwise. And Nothing lacks everything, including anything that would make it otherwise. To deny this Proposition therefore requires producing a logical proof that some logical necessity makes it otherwise. Good luck.

The “attributes” of a universe are the fundamentals of that universe, of course; what then contingently follows within that universe will be constrained, governed in its probabilities by those attributes. So we are only talking about fundamental attributes in this premise: fundamental particles and forces; fundamental laws of physics; size, shape, number, and symmetry of dimensions; initial conditions; things like that. The rest will be governed by the limits set within that universe by those attributes.

In truth, pretty much most proponents of the fine tuning argument concede this premise. Their entire argument is based on this assumption: that every possible configuration of fundamental constants is as likely as every other. Were that not the case, then it might be that ours is the most common or likely configuration. And there is certainly no evidence known to us that any other specific configuration is more likely. The argument rather presumes that any other configuration is more likely, on the assumption that every configuration is equally likely and there are so many other configurations possible. That’s actually not known to be true (we actually don’t know for sure that other configurations are possible, or equally likely). But it’s a plausible conjecture I’ll adopt here. Anyone who wishes to challenge it, will need to show some logically necessary reason why it’s not true.

Probability of Something from Nothing

Proposition 8 holds that “when there is Nothing,” then “every possible number of universes that can appear has an equal probability of occurring,” and Proposition 9 holds that therefore “the probability of Nothing remaining nothing equals the ratio of one to n, where n is the largest logically possible number of universes that can appear.” We can therefore calculate limits on how likely it is that something would exist now, given the assumption that once upon a time there was Nothing—not a god or quantum fluctuation or anything else, but literally in fact Nothing.

Assume that only the numbers 0 to 100 exist, and therefore 100 is the largest logically possible number of universes that can appear. In that event, the probability that Nothing would remain Nothing (the probability of ex nihilo nihil) is 100 to 1 against. There being 101 numbers, including the zero, i.e. the continuation of nothing being the condition of there arising zero universes, and only one of those numbers constitutes remaining nothing, then there are 100 times more ways for Nothing to become something, than to remain nothing. And when there is Nothing, there is nothing to stop any of those other ways from materializing, nor does anything exist to cause any one of those ways to be more likely than any of the others.

It is therefore logically necessarily the case that, if we assume there was ever Nothing, the probability of ex nihilo nihil is less than 1%.

Of course, 100 is not the highest number. Go looking, you won’t find a highest number. It is in fact logically necessarily the case that no highest number exists. So really, the probability of ex nihilo nihil is literally infinitesimal—infinity to one against. One might complain that we don’t really know what that means. But it doesn’t matter, because we can graph the probability of ex nihilo nihil by method of exhaustion, and thus see that the probability vanishes to some value unimaginably close to zero.

We therefore do not need God to explain why there is something rather than nothing. There may also be something rather than nothing simply “because there just is.” There isn’t any actual basis for assuming “nothing” is the natural state of anything, or that there has ever really been nothing. We could honestly just as fairly ask why should there be nothing rather than something. No God is needed here. But even if we are to presume that there ever once was Nothing, we still need no further explanation of why then there is something. Because that there would be something is then as certain an outcome as makes all odds.

Formally:

  • If Proposition 1, then Proposition 2
  • If Proposition 2, then Proposition 3
  • If Proposition 3, then Proposition 4
  • If Proposition 4 and Proposition 1, then Propositions 5 and 7
  • If Proposition 5 and Proposition 1, then Proposition 6
  • If Propositions 5, 6, and 7, then Proposition 8
  • If Proposition 8, then Proposition 9
  • If Proposition 9 and Proposition 1, then the probability that Nothing would produce something is incalculably close to 100% and therefore effectively certain to occur.

Probability of Fine Tuning from Nothing

Such is the case for the simpler question of whether Nothing would give us Something. It certainly will. No god needed. But what about the trickier question? If there was Nothing, how likely is it that it would produce Our Universe, with its particular configuration of fundamental constants? I’ve already discussed how Multiverse Theory answers this question, by rendering observed fine tuning nearly certain to occur by chance alone, simply because there are so many universes (so many rolls of the die) that this one (this roll of the die) is statistically inevitable. And since Nothing entails a Multiverse (given Propositions 6 and 1), we could drop mic right here. But I want to show how strongly this conclusion follows.

Once again. Let’s assume there is no number above 100. We’ll say 99, to keep the math clearer. So that 99 + 0 = 100 possible outcomes. You’ll find that there is therefore logically necessarily a 50% chance the number of universes will be above 49. Owing to Propositions 8 and 1. There will likewise be a 95% chance that the number of universes that arise will be more than 4. Because there are five equally likely numbers, 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 = 1% + 1% + 1% + 1% + 1% = 5% or more simply just 1% x 5. And if there’s a 5% chance to be 4 or less, it’s 95% to be more than 4.

Of course, again, 99 is not the highest number. What if the highest number was 999,999, or just one shy of a million? There will then be a 95% probability that by random chance alone a Nothing will spontaneously produce at least 50,000 universes. Because all numbers are equally likely, and when there are a million numbers, 0 through 49,999 takes up only 5% of the available numbers. The rest of the numbers above that fill out 95% of the remaining odds.

But we know there aren’t only a million numbers. What if the highest number was 10^1,000,000? That’s ten to the power of a million, which is a one followed by a million zeroes. If the highest number is 10^1,000,000, then the probability is 95% that Nothing will generate at least [correction] five times 10^999,998 universes. That’s a five followed by nearly a million zeroes. For the same reason. All the possible numbers from 0 to 5 x (10^999,998) occupy roughly 5% of the possibility space, and all possibilities are equally likely. So if it’s 5% likely to be below that number, it is logically necessarily the case it’s 95% likely to be at least that number or more.

But the highest number is not 10^1,000,000. In fact there is no highest number. But what is logically necessarily the case is this: for any number of universes x that we choose, there is a number of possible universes y such that the probability of Nothing producing x or more universes is 95%. In fact, there is a number of possible universes z such that the probability of Nothing producing x or more universes is 99.999999999%. Or any other probability we want. In other words, we can be effectively certain (to a probability ~100%) that the number of universes Nothing will produce at random, will be larger than any x (when x is any finite number).

It therefore follows that if Nothing, then the probability of Fine Tuning by random chance is ~100%.

No god needed.

Let’s Walk It Through

If you still don’t grasp why, let me walk you the remaining steps so you can get the picture.

Any Fine Tuning Argument for Intelligent Design rests on this assertion:

  • There is some configuration of fundamental constants defining Our Universe that, if selected at random from all possible configurations and every possible configuration is as likely as every other, has a probability of being thus selected of P, where P is some really small number—even absurdly small, like 1 in 10^10^23, which is ten to the power of (ten to the power of twenty three), which is basically a one followed by a hundred billion trillion zeroes. A phantasmically small number.

The argument then proceeds that intelligent design is more likely than this. That’s not actually true. The conclusion doesn’t follow even from the premise. When you put evidence back in that this premise leaves out, the conclusion actually reverses; and on present knowledge does so no matter how low P is, since the independent probability of a god is just as comparably small, producing a relative prior probability that’s not appreciably larger than or even as large as there being no god (see the opening section of my chapter on Design in The End of Christianity). The premise is also often quite questionable in its specifics. But it is less questionable in its general point, which I’m here granting for convenience: that P is probably low, even if not “that” low.

Which is why Multiverse Theory solves the matter and is therefore a solid competitor to any Design Theory. If the odds of this universe arising by chance were 1 in 100 and there are 100 randomly configured universes, then the probability our universe would exist by chance is actually closer to 2 in 3. In other words, odds are, it would exist by chance alone. Because the probability of getting zero instances of our universe out of 100 chances would in that case equal 0.99^100, or 99% (the probability on each of those 100 trials of not getting our universe) to the power of 100 (the number of trials). Which equals 0.366 and change. Which means the probability of getting at least one universe like ours is then 1 – 0.366 or 0.634 and change. Roughly 63%. Close to 2 in 3 odds. And if there are 1000 universes, then the probability of there being at least one like ours skyrockets to nearly 100%…in fact 0.99995 and change, or ~99.99%. That being the outcome of 0.99^1000.

If you work it out, you’ll find that if there are 1 in 10^10^23 universes, then the probability that one of them will be ours even if the odds of getting ours are 1 in 10^10^23, will be that same roughly 63%. In other words, even a universe that improbable, is more likely than not going to arise simply by chance, when there are that many randomly configured universes. And indeed, if there are 1 in 10^10^24 universes, the probability that one of them will be ours if the odds of getting ours is 1 in 10^10^23, will in fact be ~100% (roughly the same 99.99%). For exactly the same reason.

Take note therefore. It is logically necessarily the case that:

  • There is always some number of universes U whereby, when that many randomly configured universes exist, Our Universe will have a ~100% chance of occurring, for any probability P of Our Universe occurring.

That’s right. Pick any P. Let it be 1 in 10^10^1,000 even. Or 1 in 10^10^10^1,000,000. It doesn’t matter. No matter what improbability you choose, there will still be some number of universes U, on which the probability of Our Universe existing will be ~100% by chance alone.

But we just established something else is logically necessarily the case:

  • There is always some number of possible universes z such that the probability of Nothing producing U or more universes is ~100%.

This is because of Propositions 6 and 8 and 1. If therefore the probability of U number of universes is ~100% on chance alone, then the probability of Our Universe existing as a mere result of random chance is ~100%, no matter how improbable Our Universe is on a single selection (no matter, in other words, how absurdly low P is).

For example, suppose again P is 1 in 1000 (or 0.001). If there are 100 universes, thus 100 random tries, the probability of Our Universe existing somewhere in that run will be 1 – 0.999^100 = 0.095 and change, or roughly 9.5%. If there are 1000 universes, then it’s 1 – 0.999^1,000 = 0.63 and change. If there are 10,000 universes, then it’s 1 – 0.999^10,000 = 0.99995 and change. If there are 100,000 universes, then it’s 1 – 0.999^100,000, which is a probability equal to roughly 99.99 followed by over forty more 9’s. That’s about as close to 100% as you can dream of getting. Hence ~100%.

The following graph demonstrates the point:

Graph charting probability our universe exists up the y axis, against the number of universes that exist along the x axis, showing the probability rising to 100%.

Here OU means “Our Universe” and P(OU|universe) means the probability of Our Universe existing per universe that exists, i.e. given one universe. The graph shows what happens when the number of universes grows above 1. Very quickly as U rises, P approximates to 100%. Obviously it won’t change direction as U rises further. In other words, there is no logical argument by which you can claim that somewhere farther out on the graph, at some U somewhere in the infinitude of finite numbers that U can be, the graphed line starts to drop again. That’s logically impossible. And you can always build the same graph, for any value of P. Just magnify U by as much as you diminish P. Indeed there is always some U, on which the same curve results for any possible P.

Therefore, it is always the case that given Nothing, the probability of Our Universe existing, its apparent fine tuning and everything, is ~100%. No matter how improbable our Universe’s configuration is.

There is literally no improbability you can assign to our Universe that will change this result.

It is simply logically necessarily the case, that if there was ever actually Nothing, the probability our universe would exist is ~100%. Which actually makes the Nothing Theory a better explanation for our universe’s existence than the God Theory. Because the latter does not explain well much of anything else about our universe (as I explain in detail in my chapter on this in TEC)—it doesn’t even explain well the fine tuning theists obsess over, since a God would have no need of fine tuning! Only godless universes require it. Fine tuning is therefore evidence for atheism, not design. But even apart from that, what we have discovered here is that if we posit that there once was ever Nothing, it follows by logical necessity that our universe will exist, exactly as we see it.

No need then for gods.

You might have noticed another consequence here. Nothing as here defined is unarguably far far simpler than God as an explanatory entity. So if Nothing explains all fine tuning, and even if God also did (even though God doesn’t so well), and nothing else did (which is probably not true, but let’s just pretend), then Starting Spontaneously From Nothing is still more likely the correct explanation of our universe. Because it wins out on Occham’s Razor, explaining all observations to a probability of ~100%, using far fewer assumptions. In fact, almost literally no assumptions at all.

-:-

For further debate on this thesis see:

Koons Cosmology vs. The Problem with Nothing

and

Why Nothing Remains a Problem: The Andrew Loke Fiasco.

and now

What If We Reimagine ‘Nothing’ as a Field-State?

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