Christian historian Dr. Wallace Marshall and I are debating whether or not enough evidence points to the existence of a god. For background and format, and Dr. Wallace’s opening statement, see entry one. For subsequent entries, see index.

This time we are still focusing on the Kalam Cosmological Argument: in response to my second reply, Marshall presents his latest arguments. I can’t respond to everything for limited space. But in today’s entry I’ll cover the essentials.

That the Evidence Points to Atheism (III)

by Richard Carrier, Ph.D.

We don’t know spacetime had a prior cause, nor could it. And everything else has more plausible causes than gods.

Do We Know Time Has a Cause?

No.

Marshall claims it’s begging the question to say a cause must exist somewhere to exist. No. It’s logically impossible for a thing to exist and never exist and exist nowhere. “Exists nowhere” is a synonym of “doesn’t exist.” Same for time.

Marshall then implies God is not a temporally ordered cause but a “simultaneous” cause. But if spacetime has to already exist for God to exist, he isn’t needed to cause it to exist. Spacetime can exist without anything else existing; but nothing can exist without spacetime. It’s the only known necessary being. We therefore need no other.[1]

We also have no evidence that all things (much less spacetimes) have this kind of cause. We only observe temporal causes. If there is a fundamental “simultaneous” cause of everything, it could just be spacetime. We need no god to explain spacetime any more than we need an additional cause to explain god.

Marshall protests, but he has never shown that “an early state of the universe” cannot be the first cause. If causes can be simultaneous with their effects, then nothing prevents a primordial vacuum state from causing everything else. It would remain as uncaused as Marshall’s god. But just as viable; indeed more so.

Dr. Marshall insists “the cause would have to be spaceless, timeless and immaterial” because it brought all that about, but his allowance of simultaneous causation refutes that. Time might simply just exist, as uncaused as God. Because even God couldn’t exist without it. Nor could he have “pre-existed it” so as to cause it.

Worse, Marshall incorrectly says I’m begging the question when I said laws won’t exist when nothing exists to manifest them. Wrong. That is a logically necessary fact: if nothing exists to produce a causal law, that law won’t exist. Marshall is the one begging the question by assuming without evidence that causal laws will just “exist” for no reason.

Do We Know Time Began?

No.

Marshall claims evidence our local universe began is evidence time began. Wrong. “The [most] standard and [most] widely accepted model of how the universe began” today is the inflationary Big Bang model, which entails countless universes might precede ours. We therefore cannot conclude from our Big Bang that it was the first. All cosmologists concur on this, including every living cosmologist Marshall himself cites as an authority.[2]

Marshall keeps citing Vilenkin as demonstrating time had a beginning, but Vilenkin’s BGV theorem demonstrates this beginning was vastly prior to our Big Bang. In other words, the very theorem Marshall is relying on entails “evidence our local universe began is not evidence time began.” Marshall can’t count on this theorem one moment and repudiate it the next.

And as this is all the current state of the science, thirty year old quotations of dead scientists cannot rebut it.

Meanwhile, Guth has admitted the BGV theorem relies on undemonstrated assumptions, which many cosmologists don’t consider reasonable; such as that all of physics is classical, when we know it’s quantum mechanical. But the BGV ignores quantum gravity, even though we know that’s required to explain the world; therefore any theorem that ignores it cannot explain the world. That’s why there’s no consensus that the BGV theorem is correct.

Krauss explains this to Craig in the video Marshall cites: starting at timestamp 55:50, Krauss says the above: that only quantum models can ultimately be true, yet BGV is not a quantum model. Craig is stymied, resulting in this exchange at timestamp 56:15:

Craig: Isn’t it true that the only viable quantum gravity models on order today involve a beginning?

Krauss: No.

What part of “no” does Marshall not understand?

Marshall says Krauss agreed “all the evidence we have says the universe had a beginning,” but Marshall is confusing “universe” with “existence.” Krauss argued our universe might be one in an eternal chain of universes.

I asked the cosmologist Sean Carroll, “Despite the BGV theorem, are past eternal cosmological models still possible?” He replied [3]:

Yes, of course. The BGV theorem makes assumptions, and those assumptions might be false. Indeed, viable past-eternal models have been constructed. Most importantly, the BGV theorem only refers to classical spacetime, not to quantum gravity. It says nothing at all about whether the universe must have a beginning, only about the limits of the classical approximation.

I also asked whether past eternality could be a result of quantum indeterminism, and Carroll replied we won’t know without a theory of quantum gravity, but, he added:

Certainly the BGV theorem says nothing about the Carroll-Chen model, as (1) it doesn’t conform to the BGV assumptions, and (2) it involves quantum transitions in a crucial way, and the BGV theorem only applies to classical spacetimes.

In my last reply I explained the probabilistic consequence of that Carroll-Chen model: that quantum indeterminism allows past eternality by bypassing the assumptions of the BGV (Boltzmann effects can also do this even in a classical model). That Big Bangs have a nonzero probability of occurring from quantum indeterminism is a fact.[4] Ergo, a past eternal quantum model is actually more supported by current evidence than the BGV, which actually contradicts evidence by ignoring quantum effects.

So we don’t know spacetime had a beginning. Cosmologists’ opinions differ, but when asked, all will admit it’s simply unknown.

Is God a Simple Explanation?

No.

God requires enormous unexplained specified complexity and numerous assumptions nowhere grounded in science.[5] Unlike quantum vacuums, or ungoverned nothing-states such as I explore in The Problem with Nothing. From Propositions 1 and 2 there, all subsequent numbered propositions follow by logical necessity. And those two propositions entail vastly fewer suppositions than a god.

Are Actual Infinities Possible?

Yes.

Dr. Marshall says I have “yet to respond” to his “second philosophical argument” against actual infinities. But I did. I noted actual infinities’ existence in no way depends on their being counted or added up. So his adding argument is a non sequitur, as also explained by all the mathematicians I cited in thorough refutation of all Marshall’s arguments against actual infinities. To none of which Marshall replies.[6]

No living mathematician I know of, who is expert in transfinite mathematics, agrees with Marshall.

I noted Marshall was even misusing Silverman, who did not say actual infinities were impossible. I asked Silverman whether he thought past infinite times were possible. His response? “There might have been infinitely many big bangs and big crunches in a multiverse.”[7] End of story.

-:-

Such is my third response. 

Continue on to Dr. Marshall’s reply.

-:-

Endnotes

[1] For those who want to explore this point further, see my development of it in response to Edward Feser in “Feser’s Five Proofs of the Existence of God: Debunked!” (20 February 2018), “Feser Can’t Read (and Other Astonishing Facts)” (3 March 2018), and “Feser Still Can’t Read” (11 March 2018).

[2] I cited numerous examples confirming this in earlier entries in this debate, but start with, again, Leonard Susskind, “Was There a Beginning?MIT Technology Review (27 April 2012).

[3] Email from Sean Carroll to Richard Carrier, “Re: Debate Question: Quantum Cosmology and Past Eternality” (6 May 2019).

[4] See Sean Carroll and Jennifer Chen, “Spontaneous Inflation and the Origin of the Arrow of Time,” ArchivX 2004, leading to Sean Carroll’s book on the subject, From Eternity to Here (2010).

[5] See Richard Carrier, “The Argument from Specified Complexity against Supernaturalism” (17 April 2018) and “The God Impossible” (8 March 2012).

[6] Everything I cited refutes Marshall; I here repeat verbatim the last two endnotes of my last Reply: Hilbert’s position is refuted in the very introduction to the collection of essays Dr. Marshall cites, as co-written by the renowned mathematician and philosopher Hilary Putnam (see Philosophy of Mathematics, pp. 6-11; Hilbert’s essay therein is an old speech from 1925 included only as a foil). Current mathematical opinion [is summarized in]: Rudy Rucker, Infinity and the Mind: The Science and Philosophy of the Infinite (1982), e.g., p. 296; N. Ya. Vilenkin, In Search of Infinity (1995), e.g., pp. 50-69; quotation and demonstrations: Bertrand Russell, The Principles of Mathematics, 2nd ed. (1938), esp. § 3.23 and all of § 5 (e.g. 5.43). See also the expert commentaries cited in endnote 6 to my first reply in the Carrier-Wanchick debate, and the reference entries: “Is there really such a thing as infinity?” from the University of Toronto Mathematics Network; “Infinity” from the History of Mathematics Archive; and “The Infinite” from the Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy and “Continuity and Infinitesimals” from the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.

[7] Email from Herb Silverman to Richard Carrier, “Re: Debate Question: The Possibility of Infinity” (6 May 2019).

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