As a veteran, and yet hard-core lefty with an obsession for evidence-based policy, I’m often asked what my position is on gun control; which is to say, in my country (because that subject isn’t as much of an issue in other developed nations—we are the crazy outlier). As it happens there was a recent article on this at The Washington Post that is reasonably honest and accurate about the things we actually could do, and what impact it would have, based on both the science and American legal precedent. This inspired me to lay out what I myself think we should do—which is not the same thing as what I think American voters and politicians would allow us to do. But it is what I think they should do, because it’s what they would do if voters and politicians woke up tomorrow and started acting rationally for a change, and making decisions based on evidence rather than fear or fantasy.
The only barrier to realizing correct policy is the absence of rationality and empiricism in legislatures and the electorate. When it comes to dealing with an irrational public and a disingenuous leadership, the most we can hope for is to reinstitute policies we successfully once already had—like high-capacity magazine and high-powered weapon bans; truly universal background checks; state mental health care funding; red-flagging; and other such bandaids that have a minimal but still measurable impact, and for reasons that should be obvious, e.g. as Fareed Zakaria points out in respect to the “mental health” aspect of the equation:
Do people in the United States have 100 times as many mental health problems as they do in the U.K. [where there are a hundred times fewer gun deaths]? The United States has a rate of gun violence 18 times higher than the average rich country. Does that mean it has 18 times the rate of mental disorders? Texas has almost triple the rate of gun deaths as the state of New York — yet Texas doesn’t have three times as many mentally ill people as New York.
And so on for the rest. The elephant in the room (the readier availability of guns) is the real cause of skyrocketing gun deaths. But we will contemplate those other “solutions” instead, not because they are the best policies, but rather because those are the only policies we have a realistic chance of succeeding at implementing with so irrational a public and such intense gun-lobby bribery of lawmakers. These tried policies are not useless; the science shows they do make things better in some degree, just not in a great degree (see that WaPo article for more; but you can Google-up reliable studies on every point if you employ sound critical methods). And those policies don’t really have any legitimately objectionable downsides (the sky never fell when they were in force, and any prediction of doom did not come to pass). And doing something is always better than doing nothing.
But that isn’t what I’m going to talk about today. I’m going to lay out what a rational American public and honorable American lawmakers would do. And that will differ from other developed nations should or could do (or even have done) only in respect to the limitations posed by our particular national Constitution. Yes, it is conceivable to change that Constitution. Although in all practical respects I think that is at present impossible; even the most widely supported changes to it would never pass these days because our political machine is utterly fucked up. But you’ll see shortly why I don’t think we even need to change it—we could just pay attention to what it already says. In short, I’ll be describing what would pass American Constitutional muster if our Supreme Court justices acted like genuine (and not sham) “originalists.”
My Underlying Principles
I do believe in the citizen soldier. As was policy in ancient Athens, the first approximation of Democracy, I believe every citizen should be capable of taking up arms in defense of their nation—by which I mean, defense against actual invaders of our nation or our allies; not just any foreign military adventures. Or at least some manner of service to that end—there is plenty for the pacifist and even the disabled to do for any fight against a real and tangible enemy in a national or global crisis, from data-processing to staffing medical units. But if you are able to fight, you ought to know how to fight, and be ready to hold any moral front. I believe in national service. And this at the very least involves access to firearms to train and to familiarize yourself with how to employ, handle, and even thwart them.
I also believe there is such a thing as legitimate hunters—not beer-swilling fun-killers and glory-hounding trophyists, but people who actually hunt to feed their family, or to help cull exploding populations (since we have wiped out natural predators and thus imbalanced ecosystems, we are the ones who often have to step in to fill their ecological role), or to keep in practice at doing either; or all the above. And guns, let’s be honest, are a more humane way to kill than bows, spears, or crossbows. I also believe in self-defense, certainly of the home; and firearms can play an important role in that respect. Though a certified marksman in pistols and rifles, I keep a shortsword for this purpose, in which I am also trained; thieves don’t want it, it moves quickly around corners, and it won’t miss or fly clean through a target to kill a sleeping kid in a nearby home. But guns serve as well. Some people for this purpose (though not just everyone all willy-nilly) even have legitimate reasons to carry firearms in public, at least openly if not concealed. Guns also serve obviously necessary roles in security professions and police forces.
But I also believe in rational, evidence-based policy-making (as you’ll see across all my articles on politics). I reject ideology-based policy, and consequently don’t usually land in exactly the same place as any typical “side” in a given polital debate. Correct policy can only follow from true facts. And citizen soldiery does not require owning the weapons you train on or keeping them in the home; and neither hunting nor self-defense require semi-automatic weapons or high-capacity magazines. And the fantasy that guns are needed as a check against tyranny is stone-cold bullshit. Your fancy arsenal of bump-stocked assault rifles will vaporize under their missiles, rockets, grenades, cluster-bombs, artillery barages, belt-fed 50s and depleted-uranium chaingun straffes. Their tanks and gunships alone will finish you. They’ll roll over you like a squad of Ukrainian partisans over a Russian batallion. They will always outnumber and outgun you by several orders of magnitude. You cannot really fight the Feds—once they’ve decided to kill you, you are dead. The only defense against tyranny is to vote.
That’s fact. Not opinion. And policy must follow fact. So the “we need machineguns to fight a runaway government” argument in the gun control debate is a non-starter. If that’s where you are, you are arguing from fantasy, not fact. I only argue from fact. And as you’ll soon see, that argument isn’t even constututional. There was never any original intent for the second amendment to establish private gun ownership. And the Second Amendment was never meant as a bulwark against tyranny, but in fact against insurrection itself. The Founding Fathers had a completely different idea in mind as to how its implemetation would check federal power.
Outline of My Policy Recommendation
Quite simply, we should treat guns like cars. Not only should every gun and its rifling signature, serial number, and ownership history be registered with the state (not the federal government; state government—for the same constitutional reasons I’ll conclude with below—although the federal government could provide an interstate cross-search capability, it would not be creating or maintaining the databases themselves), and indeed whether manufactured here or imported this must be a fundamental requirement of clearing customs or going to market (facts that can be federally enforced); but also, no one should be allowed to own, purchase, or rent any firearm, or any components particular to the manufacturing of a firearm, or any ammunition or components of ammunition, without a gun operator’s license from the state (and again, I mean state; not the federal government; if a federal system exists at all, it would service only persons living or working on exclusively federal lands or protectorates, or aggregate state databases).
Like a driver’s license, a gun license would require passing written and practical tests in safety and handling (covering everything from home safety, e.g. the prevention of children’s accessing an operational firearm, to public safety, e.g. never firing on a target you have not positively identified as a threat, never pointing the weapon at anyone until you intend to use it, taking “collateral damage risk” responsibly into account before firing into a crowd, and so on). Which would happen as a matter of course for all persons in national or other service (e.g. all soldiers, police, and security personnel will automatically receive this training and licensing). And it would have an easily-scanned ID code (like a magstrip or QR or bar code; and as a backup, a legible ID number) that would immediately check its status against the appropriate state database: if the license has been revoked or suspended (for reasons of criminal conviction, mental incompetence, red-flag, or anything the like), anyone selling firearms, components, and ammo will know this before completing any sale—and they will by law be forbidden to sell to anyone without a valid license.
No one in fact will be allowed to rent or sell any of this equipment without running such a check: gun shows, no exception; private sales and transfers and gifts, no exception. This means gun license ID numbers and their corresponding status will be fully public, searchable by anyone via state-run internet database—including access to the photo and physical description of the license holder; but not including unnecessary confidential information like their home address (although that information shall be available to certain authorized users, such as the police).
Gun owners will be legally liable for the misuse and abuse of weapons they own. Failing to report a theft, for example, will not shield them (although a weapon reported stolen will; unless your report is fraudulent, which will also itself be a crime). If a family member (or anyone) harms someone or damages property with your weapon, for example, you will face at least misdemeanor criminal charges for neglect of duty or facilitation. And you will be subject to all applicable lawsuits. Owning a weapon is a real responsibility, and thus you will have to weigh whether you want to assume that responsibility before choosing to own one.
No weapon will be legal for private ownership that loads more than six rounds or has any form of semi-automatic or automatic function (nor will any weapons be legal that are designed to easily be converted to such function). That means pump-action shotguns, revolvers, and bolt-action rifles will be the best you can get. Because nothing else is necessary for private owners. You will also only be able to buy one weapon per month (no mass sales or bulk buys), with exceptions rare and only allowed when directly notified to the state within a reasonable time frame (e.g. taking possession of a weapons cache by inheritance). The state will already be notified of every legal purchase you make and thus will always know who is hoarding weapons or making suspicious buys; just as we already do for the purchase of explosives or the essential components of explosives.
Weapons of war (e.g. fifty-caliber long guns, submachineguns, assault weapons) may, at each state’s legislative discression, be available for rental, or purchase and ownership, but not in the home. Such weapons must, by law, always remain stored in a heavily-secure state-run armory with its own internal firing range, where you can go for testing and practice with your weapons in this category. And these will be designed so you can’t “go rogue” with a weapon to shoot your way out with it; you’ll with certainty, by design, be taken out or trapped before that ever happens. But when the governor of that state, or the mayor or equivalent elected authority over a municipality, declares a public emergency, they may issue a directive to allow validly-licensed persons to remove their weapons from these armories for legal temporary use in the community, but they must be returned when the emergency concludes, and must be confirmed returned (or otherwise confirmed destroyed—or lost, in which case triggering an investigation to confirm it was lost, and lost in good faith, meaning, without criminal neglect or intent). And even this armory law will be optional. No state will be required to implement any part of it. Owning weapons of war will only ever be a state-awarded privilege, subject to state regulation; not a right.
There will not, however, be age restrictions on firearms. Children will be allowed to handle and use them with responsible supervision. And any adult citizen will be subject to the same laws regarding access to and ownership of guns. Because I disagree with all age-restrictive laws for adults. I believe they violate the equal-protection clause of the 14th Amendment (ensuring no citizen shall be denied “the equal protection of the laws”), as well as the moral valence of the Civil Rights Acts of 1964-1967. The latter does not establish any blanket legal prohibition against age discrimination, but the moral principles it implements establish it in concept: it is as wrong to treat a woman differently based on the “average” properties of women (e.g. “women are short; therefore no woman can serve in a job that requires one to be tall”) as it is to treat an eighteen-year-old differently based on the “average” poperties of teenagers (e.g. “teenagers are impulsive and can’t be trusted with responsibility; therefore no teenager can be entrusted with a responsibility like renting a car or drinking or vaping pot”). Individuals must be treated as individuals. Therefore no adult age discrimination should ever be codified in law. And consequently there should not be any age restriction on owning guns (nor on drinking or renting cars or vaping pot either) for any voting adult who remains compos mentis.
There should, however, be a buyback program in effect: federal or state governments should maintain a fund for purchasing any and all firearms proferred them (albeit at below market price; or in the case of “homemade” weapons, below cost), no questions asked. This will gradually reduce the flood and glut of firearms in circulation and increase the rate at which even stolen firearms end up off the street, increasingly impairing criminal access to firearms, and reducing even home firearm accident rates.
Also, of course, as I’ve already mentioned, states should implement, and streamline and advertise, every valid form of incompetence-based restriction on access to firearms (from criminal convictions to red-flagging). But they should not bother with sentencing enhancements for gun-related crime to de-incentivize criminals carrying and using guns. Because the science shows those have no significant effect (Hilke 2020; cf. even the U.S. Department of Justice 2016). Rather, as Source New Mexico aptly puts it, would-be criminals “need access to quality health care, mental health care, substance recovery programs, housing and other supports.” Reducing crime is most effectively accomplished by reducing the root causes of criminality. The evidence shows, particularly comparing nations, that an effective amount of socialism that achieves this outcome, programs averting the manufacture of criminals in the first place, are always more effective at reducing crime than harsher policing and sentencing. Indeed, even just ending the drug war would have a substantial crime-reductive impact (it would also, incidentally, reduce refugee pressures on our southern border, as that is substantially caused by drug cartels, which are substantially funded into destructive existence by our drug war). As would, I suspect, instituting a universal basic income.
Evidential Defense of My Policy Recommendation
The first evidential basis for my policy proposal is that once implemented it would begin to change the entire gun culture of America, which is the real problem underlying our extraordinary propensity for gun violence compared to all other developed nations. Once our laws establish an outsize respect for the responsibilities of gun ownership, and acknowledge that they are a superlatively dangerous instrument, people’s currently lax and reckless attitudes toward gun use and ownership will decline, and begin to shift toward the gun cultures of other nations—which we know we can expect, because it has already happened everywhere else. Which will have a mass effect on reducing the abuse of, and excessive recklessness of access, to firearms.
The second evidential basis for my policy proposal is that it will reduce gun accidents and crimes owing to the simple burden effect: only people willing to put in the effort to get properly licensed, and remain so, will have legal access to guns and ammunition; and all legal owners will have received substantial training and passed handling tests. This will begin to reduce gun availability and increase the rate of responsible gun-ownership (and thus responsible access and handling of guns). Gun registration, meanwhile, will increase the rate at which criminals are apprehended (because the history of a gun can then be investigated, and thus illegal markets more frequently exposed and dismantled, and thieves and perpetrators more frequently caught). My policies will not, of course, eliminate irresponsible gun ownership and handling. But it will without doubt change the ratio: more and more gun owners and handlers will be both responsible and competent than the present system foments; and more criminals and illegal markets we be caught. A net positive outcome effect on gun crimes and accidents owing to this will be measurable.
Data confirming these facts is presented in the Washington Post article I mentioned at the top. For example, its sixth proposal (to treat guns like cars) includes data showing that states that required licensing saw substantial drops in gun-related homicides and suicides. Even its second proposal, to age-restrict guns, its only proposal that I reject, illustrates by proxy the general points I just made: all evidence of the impact of age restriction will track as well the impact of responsibility-and-competence restriction. Change peoples attitudes about weapons—by making it harder to get them and requiring training to get them, by requiring people to take seriously the steps and effort involved—and you will change the ratio of irresponsible and incompetent people who have them. Which is the actual metric “age restriction” is supposed to get at, albeit by the unjust instrument of prejudicially assuming all persons of a given group are irresponsible, rather than requiring them as individuals to provide some demonstration that they are responsible (and likewise adding controls like red flag laws that facilitate the same thing).
One might at this point object that putting so many restrictions on guns will leave it harder for law-abiding citizens to get them while criminals will continue to arm-up as easily as ever. But there is no evidence to back this claim. All restrictions on legal ownership of guns trickle down into a corresponding reduction in criminal access to guns. Because guns start to get rarer and harder to find; they get more expensive on the black market; and are confiscated at a much higher frequency by law endorcement. Moreover, unlike law-abiding gun-owners, criminal gun owners (and criminal gun sellers) get caught and prosecuted at a substantially higher rate than regulations ever block competent and responsible citizens from accessing guns. In short, while anyone qualified can jump the hoops to get a gun; it is not the case that “anyone” can illegally access or sell guns and never get pinched for it. They aren’t all getting pinched, sure. But substantial numbers will be. The net effect is a reduction in criminals with guns, at a faster rate than any reduction in law-abiding citizens’ access to guns.
More importantly, relative access to guns doesn’t even matter. If your outcome metric is (as it should only be) meaningfully reducing gun-related deaths and crimes, greater regulation and restriction simply always has a substantial positive effect (see the May 2022 editorial survey of studies at Scientific American). So there is no reason to care about criminals having easier access to guns than everyone else, if that being so does not even increase gun-related crime. The intuitive worry that “a criminal will use a gun on me, so I can’t let the government disarm me” is not rational when in fact it wasn’t the government that disarmed you. Because a licensing law in no way prevents your having a gun—unless you legitimately should not have one; and then it’s your incompetence, not the government, that’s disarming you. It’s even less rational when the statistics show that the scenario you are worried about will actually become less frequent, not more so. Intuition is unreliable. Evidence is king. And fact is, the evidence shows gun licensing and restrictions do not increase your chances of being victimized by an armed criminal—they actually decrease those chances. As they do also the chances of accidental injury and death. And that’s why such regulations should be implemented.
As with any fraught political debate, there will be a lot of competing “claims” made by special interests on both sides. Your job as a citizen is to critically examine which of those actually are true, or even supported by evidence at all, and which not. To this end I will list some competing resources you can “burn test” for reliability and accuracy (as opposed to bullshit, rhetoric, and mythology):
- Against gun control, see the NRA-ILA’s “Why Gun Control Doesn’t Work” and the CRPA’s “Ten Arguments Against Gun Control.” In favor of gun control, see Dr. Ryan Hubbard’s “On Gun Control: 7 Pro-Gun Arguments and Why They Fail,” and Daniel Brezenoff’s “Arguments Against Gun Control and Facts That Prove Them Wrong.” For an optimized Pro-Con spreadsheet on gun control, see ProCon.org. But some of the best collections of scientific and expert conclusions come from the pro-control side: see Everytown, the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions, and the Alliance for Gun Responsibility, as leading examples.
If you explore these, you’ll find the gun lobby is by far more avoidant of actual facts and more dependent on mythology, dogma, and emotions trumping reason. They will cite Supreme Court justices echoing their dogmas in violation of the actual wording of the Constitution, rather than studying the actual original wording and intent of the Constitution. They will continue citing John Lott over and over again, despite his work being antiquated and thoroughly refuted, indeed even established to be fraudulent (see, and fact-check to verify if you don’t trust any of it, “The Bogus Claims of the NRA’s Favorite Social Scientist, Debunked” at Vox; “The GOP’s Favorite Gun ‘Academic’ Is a Fraud” at ThinkProgress; “John Lott’s Missing Survey on Defensive Gun Use” at GVPedia, along with its corresponding whitesheet; and “Discredited Pro-Gun Researcher John Lott Falls Apart When You Press Him” at MediaMatters). They will keep citing “Chicago,” rather than comprehensive studies comparing all cities and states and nations—a dead giveaway for a cherry-picking fallacy rather than seeing what results when you apply valid scientific methods instead (on why the example of Chicago can’t help the gun lobby, see Philip Bump at the Washington Post and Danielle Kurtzleben at NPR). In the final analysis, all factual truth and overall scientific findings support my policy improvements.
When we get passed the bullshit and to actual provable facts, there is no factual argument against my policy to speak of (legal arguments I’ll get to next). Because there are no negative effects worth concern. All defensible reasons for access to firearms are protected and guns are made available to those earning the privilege of it. And not only is there a minimal restriction of liberty in this, it actually represents a net gain in liberty: because the reduction in the loss of liberty of those impacted by gun crimes and accidents far outweighs the loss of liberty of individuals required to act responsibilty to earn the privileges of gun ownership. And there are multiple substantial positive effects. No policy will “eliminate all crime,” so that is not a relevant outcome criterion. Any gain is gain. All that matters is what the positive outcomes of the policy cost (financially and in terms of other burdens, including restrictions on liberty), whether that cost is worth spending for the effect (e.g. is there no net loss or even a net gain, e.g. in reduced total societal financial costs of having vs. lacking the policy; likewise in respect to overall societal liberty), and whether the effect (the outcomes being lauded) is a desirable public goal. Which in this case it clearly is.
Constitutional Defense of My Policy Recommendation
That leaves the legal argument. In the United States, our laws at present must accord with the Second Amendment to the Constitution, which reads, “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” In a genuinely originalist interpretation, we would heed the actual wording of this text as originally intended by its actual authors, and thus must reference what its content meant to them at the time, meaning the actual context not only of its composition but its implementation by those very same people. After all, the first four Presidents of the United States were the very Founding Fathers who negotiated and approved this amendment’s text: George Washington, John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, and James Madison. How they regarded the Second Amendment is thus kind of fundamental to what they thought they were agreeing to when they established it.
Note two key phrases in the amendment: “well regulated militia” and “the people.” The amendment does not mention any individual right. It states a right bestowed upon the people, as a collective. And it establishes at the very forefront the importance, in fact the literal necessity, of any thus-armed militia being “well regulated.” It does not say “randos with unregulated access guns are necessary to a free state.” It says exactly the opposite: “well-regulated militias are necessary to a free state.” And indeed not just regulated, but well regulated. And militias. Not individuals. It does not matter what disingenuous dogmatists on the Supreme Court bench have “claimed” any of this means or entails. Fact is fact. And fact is, these are the original intentions of the amendment, its indisputable meaning as written. Any alternative “reading” is simply lying. And a Supreme Court that actually honestly applied an originalist interpretation to this amendment would agree.
Thus, the Second Amendment explicitly authorizes, in fact even requires, gun regulation. The same power and indeed obligation that Congress and the States exercise in regulating access to other weapons of war (explosives, missiles, artillery, machineguns, nuclear bombs, even just fissile material; the arming of vehicles—air, land, or sea; even just unregulated militias—private armies—are already illegal) actually fully applies to all weapons whatever. The Second Amendment explicitly says so. So there is no genuine Constitutional argument for unregulated access to firearms, any more than to swords or even brass kuckles (you can check: even these are to some extent regulated across most of the United States; and firearms are obviously a far sight more deadly).
In the 18th century, a “well regulated militia” meant a body of conscripts or volunteers subject to the will of the electorate—the will of the people. In other words, you don’t get to be in a militia (and thus armed) without the democratic vote of the community you are in. What the Second Amendment actually did, and intended to do, was to prevent the Federal government from disarming states and municipalities. It did not intend to make access to weapons immune to democracy. And in this effect we have already satisfied the Second Amendment’s intent with the implementation of state National Guards. The Feds can’t prevent California, for example, maintaining its own well-regulated army; and so it does: the California National Guard. Likewise, each state can authorize its munipalities to arm their own “well regulated militias” (like, say, the Los Angeles Police Department; SWAT teams; and the like). The states can in fact have any other armed militias they want—for example, the California State Police. The people, as a collective, can thus democratically elect officials and legislators whereby to institute the formation of well regulated militias. The Federal Government can’t infringe upon the people’s right to do that. Those are the guns the Federal government is prohibited from taking away. But armed citizens are still always subject to the will of the local electorate—they are not immune to the people’s will. Who gets armed, for what, and when, and under what conditions, are all the right of the people to decide, at the State and (with State approval) local level. That’s what well-regulated means.
Which is also why gun regulations have to be predominately state-level—so long as well-regulated militias are in question. The Federal government can enforce the Second Amendment’s requirement of “well regulated militias” and thus can require States to meet certain minimal standards for the regulation of arms. It can also, per the Commerce Clause, regulate the interstate transport of weapons. So, for example, in principle the Feds could constitutionally prosecute a criminal in Chicago using a gun smuggled in from Texas for violating an interstate commerce law; and likewise investigate the chain of custody of that gun, and prosecute everyone involved in its transport across state borders. But most actual regulatory law is going to be at the State level, if we adhere to the original intent of the Second Amendment. This is why gun registration and licensing, like car and driver’s licensing, must be a state-level regime. The Federal government can require manufacturers and importers to follow safety and registrability requirements, because of its centrality to interstate commerce; but actual registers of guns owned and transferred should be maintained by the states. And the Federal government can establish standards as recommendations to the States. But State legislatures and elected officials—hence the people—ultimately get to decide what’s legal and what’s not.
As the framer of the Constitution James Madison himself wrote:
To suppose arms in the hands of citizens, to be used at individual discretion, except in private self-defense, or by partial orders of towns, countries or districts of a state, is to demolish every constitution, and lay the laws prostrate, so that liberty can be enjoyed by no man; it is a dissolution of the government. The fundamental law of the militia is, that it be created, directed and commanded by the laws, and ever for the support of the laws.
John Adams, A Defence of the Constitutions of the United States, 475 (1787-1788)
And this is exactly how it all used to be. Early state constitutions were even clearer on this point, some more and others less restrictive or permissive as to individuals bearing arms, and yet in the U.S. Constitution, more permissive versions of the second amendment were rejected. So the federal constitution must be read in this context, as this was the context everyone understood the text of its amendment to have been written in at the time. Everyone then understood that only well-regulated militias subject to the will of the people are protected by it from Federal infringement—not from State-by-State regulation (see Beth Daley’s “Five Types of Gun Laws the Founding Fathers Loved” and Carol Highsmith’s “American Gun Culture Is Based on Frontier Mythology—But Ignores How Common Gun Restrictions Were in the Old West” at The Conversation; and Robert Spitzer, “Gun Law History in the United States and Second Amendment Rights,” Law & Contemporary Problems 80.2 (2017)).
For example, federal bans on fully-automatic machineguns fully satisfy the Second Amendment: because they do not infringe on the right of the people’s well-regulated militias to have them (the National Guard, SWAT teams, police can have them, as can others who get proper licensing—the States, by will of the people, retain this right); but rather, they ensure only well-regulated militias can have them, because they are dangerous. This is enforcing the Second Amendment, not breaching it. The difference between a machinegun and a semi-automatic assault rifle or even pistol does not exist in the Second Amendment. If dangerous weapons can be regulated, all dangerous weapons can be regulated. So there is no legal argument that semi-automatics can’t be banned if fully-automatics can. The legal basis for the one fully applies to the other. It’s merely a matter of the people’s democratic choice where to draw that line. The Second Amendment simply does not stand in their way.
To get up to speed on the actual original context and intent of the second amendment, which I am simply reiterating, see Paul Finkelman, “A Well Regulated Militia: The Second Amendment in Historical Perspective,” Chicago-Kent Law Review 76.1 (October 2000) and Dru Stevenson’s survey in “Revisiting the Original Congressional Debates About the Second Amendment.” This is essentially verified by Congressional Summary and much of the history summarized at Wikipedia. In actual fact, when the Second Amendment was ratified, few citizens could even afford to own guns, much less did (see Thomas Verenna, “A Want of Arms in Pennsylvania,” Journal of the American Revolution (April 2014)). Public armories were a necessity. Whereas unauthorized “militias” were frequently forcibly disarmed by the very Presidents who ratified or composed the Bill of Rights; and this was deemed fully in accord with the text and intent of the second amendment (see Thomas Verenna, “Misinformed: How Divisive Politics Are Reshaping American History for the Worse,” American History & Ancestry, 28 August 2013). Which further destroys the claim that the Second Amendment was intended to ensure people could fight the Federal government. All the Founders saw it exactly the other way around.
The bottom line is that nothing in my policy recommendation violates the original wording or intent of the Second Amendment. In fact it is explicitly authorized by it. And this conclusion would survive every other constitutional interpretive framework as well. Which leaves only the consideration of whether it is worth doing—is it excessive regulation, or socially beneficial regulation? And that question has already been answered. There is no rational or evidence-based objection left. It is only irrationality (and money-grubbing knavery) that stands in its way.
My views on guns have changed slightly over time.
I am still convinced that, ideally, we’d balance the needs of sports shooters and hunters with collective security, focusing on efforts that reduce use and access as minimally as possible (e.g. efforts to track and register guns, for example).
But what people on the left are starting to point out to each other is that having guns for us isn’t about protecting ourselves from the government, which was always a silly idea. It’s about protecting ourselves from nutjob vigilantes, Oathkeepers and lynch mobs. In the current state of the country, having communities work together to engage in Black Panther-like collective protection is reasonable.
As for gun control in general, there’s actually pretty substantial sociological literature on it. NRA nuts like the parts where that literature discusses how underlying causes of huge US crime are things like extreme inequality, racial injustice, etc. What they don’t like are the parts that the literature overwhelmingly agrees that gun control has a significant effect.
As a former firearms dealer, I had concluded years ago that the present interpretation of the 2nd Amendment was grossly incorrect; many Americans cannot actually be trusted with firearms; assault weapons should be locked away in armories; the worship of firearms has resulted in a bastardized concepts of what freedom actually means. Owning a gun does not equate to freedom.
I cancelled my “lifetime” NRA membership over 24 years ago when their asinine rhetoric became too much (and their demands for endless $$). As we all know, it’s only gotten far worse since.
I am appalled that school shootings continue to occur. There is no death figure that they will not accept as “too many”. The gun community pretends they know what “to do”, but fails miserably. Parents and neighbors continue to fail to keep their firearms locked up, but that still won’t stop their deranged owners.
My NRA “training” was a complete joke, they handed out CCW licenses already signed by the “instructor” to everyone – PRIOR to the class being conducted. We were allowed to leave at that point if we wanted to, now properly authorized to obtain the CCW permit.
No laws, rights to carry, self-defense or anything of any value or instruction was covered. As former military myself, the rules of engagement were drilled into me and mine and I fully expected something of this nature to be taught to civilians. Instead, the instructor tried to sell the class some handguns he had for sale. It was a complete joke. Worst class I’ve ever had anywhere from anyone (and I’ve had quite a few). I apologized to my son who took the class with me.
Numerous states now have no-permit required for concealed carry, which has resulted in increased brandishments and threats from the strapped but ill-prepared public. My own elderly in-laws thought they should buy assault rifles due to the “antifa” threat that was supposedly coming to a tiny town in Montana.
Clearly, the gun community and the well-paid entities behind have lost their fkn’ minds. Rhetoric and fear-mongering replaced facts, evidence and conscience. I quit selling, quit gunshows, turned in my license and turned my back on them all. The fear they preach is palpable, misguided, incorrect and deadly. Millions of Americans are preparing for civil war (for real), I’ve seen it first-hand. The true number is over 500,000,000 firearms largely in the hands of angry, upset and deceived citizens who think it is their “right” to engage and violently attack whatever pisses them off. They’ve abandoned democracy, decency, lawful protest or legal redress of grievances. It’s utterly absurd, but demonstrates the real danger the country is in.
If you paid attention, there have been many assaults that were supposed to have brought the “patriots” to their feet, but fortunately, this never happened. These faketriots have totally trashed the Constitution with their pretend bravado and bluster, but they are still highly dangerous, egging each other on, hoping for the fuse to be lit. Online rhetoric has been openly calling for civil war, assassinations and deadly violence for five years (prior to this it was far less noticeable).
They would rather “fight” (kill, murder, maim) then “give up their guns” – make no mistake about that.
The only way a buy-back program would actually work is fair-market value (imo), as the black market will continue to flourish at far higher prices, and thus, gun owners will simply sell their guns illegally.
They would also need to feel adequately compensated, otherwise criminal activity (illegal gun sales) would skyrocket. This black-market activity happens now, but it’s not the majority of gun owners engaging in this, it’s the criminal element. We would only add to this contingent if unacceptable gun policies were enacted, especially too quickly.
Frankly, immediate action is necessary and way overdue, but it’s an issue that must be carefully considered and well-managed, which means serious funding. Start with the manufacturers, end their sales of assault weapons to the public. Buy back firearms and put them into armories (don’t destroy them). License EVERYONE after sufficient training that wants to handle or own firearms. Mental health fitness, criminal violations and other restrictions would need clear enforcement.
You can’t do above-market value. If you think that through you’ll understand why. Or else watch the documentary Pepsi, Where’s My Jet to recognize the mathematical economic problem you are overlooking.
Most people always want to sell to programs legally. Actually very few people want anything to do with the black market (or even know how to find it or want to go through the dangerous headache of trying). They would sooner just effect a legal sale to a new owner or shop. But fewer and fewer even bother with that headache (indeed, a used market discount and shop premium won’t really compete much with a buyback markdown anyway). Which is why buy-backs at below market have always worked and had a substantial impact everywhere substantially implemented.
I wrote sometime back in the 2000s about the fact that 9/11 conspiracy theorists, whether they were right or wrong, had to face the fact that we all knew that a government could get away with lies that led to thousands of Americans dead and hundreds of thousands of non-Americans dead (and, now, with retrospect, ongoing catastrophes like the birth of ISIS) and not stir up some kind of revolt. There really would have been little need for the attack on the Twin Towers to motivate a large portion of the population to accept killing, even if only thanks to a fairly massive propaganda approach that still only convinced a minority to accept an invasion without the support of allies, the approval of the UN or an official declaration of war. You’re identifying a similar point here: If gun ownership worked to stop governmental abuses, we empirically would be seeing none. If gun ownership protected democracies, America would be the most responsive industrialized democracy rather than one of the least.
And, of course, we know from numerous cases across history that an armed populace is rather more likely to lead to roving gangs, warlords, criminals and brutal civil wars rather than organized just rebellions.
So I largely agree with your points here except as Richard notes, which is that black markets inherently have pretty limited appeals. It wouldn’t take much to make the unregulated hellscape of American gun sales into something that carried just enough risk to make buyback programs even more effective.
Hi Fred,
You mentioned that:
Do you mind pointing out some examples? I would like to take a deeper look in this subject.
Sure!
Broadly speaking, think of the following.
1) Heavily armed gangs, like the gangs in Prohibition-era America.
2) Warlords who, for whatever reason (political failure counts because it does the same thing in practice as excessively open gun laws), can get together armed thugs.
3) Racist, religious, nationalistic, or separatist militias.
Think the FARC, Somali warlords, Hindu terrorists, the Northern Alliance, etc.
Essentially, most people trying to defend guns as safeguards of liberty have a deeply Eurocentric (and often in fact Americocentric) viewpoint. They look at societies with stability, power and functioning democratic or at least proto-democratic norms (e.g. even when America split off from England it was splitting off of a society that had a Parliament, and indeed “No taxation without representation” was arguably pretty silly as a slogan given how proportional representation systems work), and then just ignore the entire history of the planet, especially the developing world.
https://www.google.com/books/edition/Blood_Gun_Money/_Ar7DwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=private+gun+ownership+and+warlords+and+mobs&printsec=frontcover is a good indication of the danger of open gun traffic and the association between free gun exchange and arms dealing. Really, a huge part of this entire issue is that arms companies want to be able to sell arms domestically and internationally.
https://www-cdn.oxfam.org/s3fs-public/file_attachments/rr-human-cost-uncontrolled-arms-africa-080317-en.pdf is specifically about the African context.
Basically, start thinking about the gun debate not in the narrow American context where we think about societies that have pretty well-policed property laws and think about what increasing the net number of guns and ease of access to guns has tended to do globally. That change in the framing of the issue may shock you in terms of how naive it makes the pro-gun lobby actually sound.
We should note that we have illegal gun-toting rebel armies aplenty in the U.S. They’re called gangs. Many are actually well-organized and well-funded international organizations. And the effort to disarm them has been conspicuously hindered by loose gun laws.
Gangs and right-wing militias and mass shooters. I didn’t even want to bother with that point because it’s so overwhelmingly obvious, but yes, that too is an issue. And notice how we have a serious gang problem in the society with the most guns on the planet. Empirically, guns neither consistently prevent tyrannies from emerging (they certainly haven’t stopped the increasing fascist trends of the party defending the gun rights) nor consistently deter crime at anything beyond an individual level. But conservatives bury their failures and ignore all experiments, social or otherwise, that disprove their beliefs.
Dr. Carrier wrote:
Q: So under this scenario if someone were found to be in possession of a firearm by an authority, they could presumably be required to provide proof of identification so their legal ownership and possession could be verified.
And this would not pose an undue burden on the gun owner correct?
If so then you would agree that it is also reasonable for authorities to require that individuals provide proof of identification when going to vote?
Also concerning your automobile analogy, I should also point out that it is possible for someone to build their own car by purchasing a car kit of some kind. And so long as they didn’t drive it on public roads they would not be required to have it registered with the state. In other words if I own acres of land and want to drive around my property on a car (or other motorized vehicle) that is not registered with the state that is my own business.
Likewise with 3D printing technologies people can now manufacture their own weapons.
Are you suggesting that practice should be make illegal or that individuals should be required to register them with the state, even if only being kept and used for home protection?
The reason we don’t need IDs to vote is that signatures and receipts already verify authentic votes. This is why voter fraud has been almost non-existent in the United States for over a century. You don’t need to do things that you don’t need to do. If guns weren’t a problem, we wouldn’t need IDs for them either. Laws serve needs.
But I don’t object to voter ID laws that come with actual meaningful funding and policy to provide everyone IDs. The problem with voter ID laws is that it is overly burdensom for many people in this country even to get IDs. If legislatures sincerely wanted to implement voter IDs for reasons not of suppressing the vote of the poor, they would also fund and guarantee the poor’s easy access to IDs, i.e. they would eliminate the burdens of voting, rather than creating them. That they don’t do that tells us their regs are disingenuous and thus not serving a legitimate purpose. The very definition of bad regs.
As to requiring IDs for guns, the extreme danger they pose entails burdens upon obtaining them, just as for cars. If we are worried this locks the poor out of access to the privilege of driving or obtaining guns (as if the cost of cars and guns didn’t already do that)—as in, we actually care about that—then we should agree to subsidizing the costs. I’m all for it.
Hence usually “burden” arguments are bullshit. Anyone who actually cared about that would be advocating solving it with socialist support to remove the burdens. Since you almost never find anyone holding both views simultaneously, you know most people don’t really care about this. It’s thus just an excuse to oppose needed regulations, not an actual rational argument for better regulations.
And yes. 3D printed guns are no different than homemamde guns that have been regulated for ages (zip guns, for example). There is actually nothing new about this issue. And in fact we have always already regulated homemade guns; there is a reason you rarely hear about the NRA dying on that policy hill. The idea of deregulating them has never been popular. And courts continue to support laws against them.
There are ways to legally make homemade guns, but the regulations you have to satisfy are extensive; and yes, if you legally manufacture guns, you have to meet all the same requirements for owning or selling them as anyone else (including, on my policy, making them fulfill registrability requirements and convertability bans; plus any other regs The People see fit to impose, as is their right to do under the Second Amendment). It would make sense to have partial exemptions (e.g. single-shot, smoothe-bore, black-powder pistols), but only because those don’t pose the problem these laws aim to solve.
P.S. You are wrong about cars. You are not allowed to do dangerous illegal things just because it’s “on your property.” There are only far less regs for cars that never enter public roadways, because they pose less danger to the public (and your household); far, far less than guns, or for example bombs or methlabs.
But it is not that there are no laws governing that. And in principle they could be far more regulated than they already are (example: building codes, zoning laws, pollution laws, and personal liability; all the principles justifying them could be applied to things that move on your property every bit as much as things that don’t). We just don’t see a flourishing problem that needs solving with that move; almost no one does the thing you describe, nor is it creating an annual plague of mass death. Laws serve needs. There is as yet no need here.
I am baffled whenever this pattycake nonsense equating the right to vote with something like the right to own and use a firearm or to drive on public streets comes up. “No taxation without representation, anyone?”
All rights are balanced against each other. Your right to own and operate a gun, or a car, or heavy machinery, intrinsically, automatically, inherently balances against my right to safety. Those rights have to be policed, or else my rights are being infringed upon. Where the exact middle ground there is is something that is never easy to figure out and likely doesn’t even have one answer (there may be many hills of optimization on the moral landscape), but that’s how it is.
But my right to vote is derived from my right to control my own life. It’s derived from autonomy and self-management. To infringe upon it means infringing upon my business, and not yours.
The two aren’t comparable. That isn’t to say that the right to vote is unlimited either, though I can’t think of an obvious example of such a limit. But it is just not a useful comparand at all. My right to vote doesn’t infringe upon your rights in any way in the abstract. Your right to own a gun does.
Doing this for the Nonce test more than the value of the quip.
A confiscatory tax on all ammunition would be a nice interim measure. $1000/cartridge may be a place to start. We can use the proceeds to fund gun safety and victim compensation programs. Ammunition bought from and used on a range is exempt.
We also have to deal with technology. 3D printed guns are awfully hard to suppress. It may only be a matter of time before those become capable of automatic firing, too.
3D printed guns would be more useless than standard revolvers. So I’m not as concerned about them here. They are more a concern of security services (e.g. TSA; concert venues) than of second amendment policy. But obviously they would be subject to regulation same as any other home-made weapons. Zip guns and home-brew flamethrowers long predate 3D printers, so this isn’t a “new issue.”
We have more to worry about molecular printers, which are near to open commercial access. Those can literally just “print” sarin and VX and other poisons. However we handle that will be as applicable to 3D printed guns, knives, or even nuclear detonator housings.
I suspect that any state or government founded on insurrection doesn’t have a leg to stand on claiming “bulwarks to insurrection” for itself. Such a claim is palpably nonsensical.
I’ll say again it isn’t the congregation of your church you have to convince but the gentiles outside it. Who have a significantly different understanding of what rights are and what infringment of those rights means. Socialist, collectivist, and people=state interpretations are probably going to be rejected outright. As are WaPo; NPR and others that are seen as hyper-partisan or having jumped the shark.
“Which further destroys the claim that the Second Amendment was intended to ensure people could fight the Federal government. All the Founders saw it exactly the other way around.”
As intended to ensure the Federal government could fight the People? 🙂
Your Second Amendment is a direct lift from the English Bill of Rights with language amended to be none-sectarian. In our document it was intended to enable a Protestant people to deter a Papist government.
Fundamentally that is all the US Constitution is, the English Constition and Bill of Rights lightly amended and put in writing for an English nation abroad.
The Bill of Rights was most definetly written to corral government; not the people. Whichever version one is writing about.
“It did not intend to make access to weapons immune to democracy.”
The USA is a republic; not a democracy. Democracy was seen as pernicious in the late 18th Century. I think the last decade, and the rise of corrosive informal democracy imposed by the illicit minorities that control social media and the MSM, demonstrates this explicitely. The proles only getting to vote last ensures these informal Assemblies are always issuing Melian Decrees. “Cease quoting the law. We carry arms!” and “The weak suffer what they must.” writ large.
“…beer-swilling fun-killers and glory-hounding trophyists”; “…with so irrational a public…” Elitist much? Such condescension; you often sound like Eirēnaios or Epiphanios raging against “heretics”, misreporting and distorting their views, and heaping calumny upon them with a view to deligitimate; disenfranchise; and put them outside the gate.
Only you are right. Put you in government and I suspect you would soon be excusing the rope!
“Who gets armed, for what, and when, and under what conditions, are all the right of the people to decide, at the State and (with State approval) local level. That’s what well-regulated means.”
In a world where were there are no malicious actors gaming the electoral; judicial legislative; and executive processes, sure.
Unfortunately the case has been otherewise in the USA and the West for a long time and extremely otherwise for the last fifteen years or so. The people must always have recourse to arms to put the government back in its’ place.
“They’ll roll over you like a squad of Ukrainian partisans over a Russian batallion.” Umm… you just destroyed you own argument. “They’ll roll over you like a squad of Texas militia over a battalion of the Ist Infantry Division of the United States Army” is surely not your intended meaning; but Ukraine’s farmers and their tractors have frayed your argument just a mite. 🙂
“You cannot really fight the Reds—once they’ve decided to kill you, you are dead.” said Vladimir to the people; Volodymyr handed out guns and the people fucked Vladimir off.
Do you really think the US Army or the Guard are going to all stand with a delinquent government and fire on their own, on their friends an neighbours? Washington to Lee in Gehenna – “What a jerk.”
“The Second Amendment protects an individual right to possess a firearm unconnected with service in the militia,”; Justice Scalia in ‘District of Columbia v. Heller’.
There is much there is no quibble about in this post and much that is eminently sensible and should be acted upon; but I don’t hold to collectivist or socialist arguments that privelige the state myself, and I doubt they would hold with the majority of Americans either.
Neither do you get to arbitrate solely your own facts into admission; or even solely your interpretation of those facts. Take your law degree, pass the Bar Exam, practice law. Then Chief Justice Roberts might pay you some attention. Until then… Well, you’ll be rightly ignored.
Just as you might rightly ignore what hasn’t gotten through peer review Xtian origin-wise.
Sorry, I do not follow any of your arguments. You seem to ramble across disconnected sentiments. If you want to give a shorter declaration of what it is you are actually saying, that might be helpful.
Steven: I’m an anarchist and a libertarian socialist and I largely agree with Richard’s general take. So does Noam Chomsky. So I really am not sure which church you’re talking about.
The distinction between democracy and republic is middle school civics armchair crap. Everyone in political science calls what we have “democracies”. And, no, democracies are no more necessarily caustic than oligarchies. Your accounting not only conflates behavior undertaken in what is effectively a capitalist oligarchy with highly limited actual freedom and democracy with an actual democracy, but also disparages the people while cutting oligarchy a blank check. The problem isn’t democracy. It’s figuring out how to create healthy political cultures and institutions that properly balance minority and majority rights and balance the needs and values we have. As an anarchist, pareconist, anti-racist, feminist, LGBTQIA+ ally, and polyculturalist, my values are freedom, equality, diversity, efficiency, sustainability, prosociality and solidarity, health, prosperity and wellbeing.
And you upbraid Richard for elitism while rejecting “corrosive informal democracy” and “social media”. You don’t have a leg to stand on, Steve.
When you say, “Only you are right. Put you in government and I suspect you would soon be excusing the rope!”, this is classic bad faith bullshit. Richard has an opinion. He shouldn’t have to apologize for it. He shouldn’t need to constantly say (even though he actually did – every time he talks about politics he makes clear that politics is one of the areas where he is relatively least informed and so his opinions have changed over time) that this is his position. It’s not elitist and it’s not authoritarian to make policy proposals. Respond to his policy suggestions or don’t. This nonsense is below contempt.
When you say “In a world where were there are no malicious actors gaming the electoral; judicial legislative; and executive processes, sure”, first of all, nice vague unfalsifiable conditions for us to come up with policy to protect ourselves. Until Steven Watson is convinced that we have no malicious actors, better let mass shootings keep happen unabated! (Hey, Steve. See the thing I just did there? Implying that you having an opinion is tyrannical? See why that’s shitty? Maybe don’t do it again?) But more importantly, that’s just a lame ass excuse. If we have that problem, then we need to deal with it. And we also need gun reform. The only argument would be that we would wait on the gun reform until we had made progress there, but you don’t even justify that claim so it doesn’t matter. This is classic right-wing obstructionist rhetoric. I don’t know if you are conservative or not and it doesn’t matter: We do not need perfect institutions before we can solve things. Indeed, solving things is part of how we improve institutions. If you’re right, we’ll find that the solutions can’t even be implemented until we deal with the problems you identify. Which means it’s moot to bring them up.
Back in high school policy debate, there was an accepted implicit rule we called “fiat”. It basically was the idea that we were allowed to assume the essentials behind a policy being passed. No one had to say “Your policy couldn’t pass right now because the Republicans would block it!” Maybe, maybe not, but that’s not what we’re here to discuss.
You say, “Umm… you just destroyed you own argument. “They’ll roll over you like a squad of Texas militia over a battalion of the Ist Infantry Division of the United States Army” is surely not your intended meaning; but Ukraine’s farmers and their tractors have frayed your argument just a mite”. Uh, dude, the Ukrainians have not been beating the Russians with sticks, stones and hunting rifles. They have an actual military and actual hardware. This is incredibly silly. Why did you even bother to make this argument? In any case, I hope you can see that there’s a distinction between the success of an insurgency against an invading army and the success of a rebellion against a nation’s own army. Russia can afford to lose Ukraine. America can’t afford to lose America. Get it?
And constantly talking about “collectivist” and “socialist” arguments, as if there’s no justification against gun rights from an individualist perspective (and as if you saying “I DISAGREE WITH YOUR PHILOSOPHY!” is an argument), is just dumb rhetoric, again. Your right to move your arm ends at my face. Your right to fire your gun ends at my body. And the fact that you so quickly gave up on any Constitutional intent and law argument because of your own personal biases shows a contempt for law, precedent and freedom but not much else. The fact that the Framers did not intend for gun ownership to be unrestricted and unconnected from militia membership is relevant. I’d be happy to replace the Constitution as an anarchist, but until we do that, that’s the law, that’s the collective social contract, and we gain no freedom by ignoring it willy-nilly.
I am generally very happy with this blog, the exception being the statement that machine guns have been banned at the Federal level. Not so, they are registered by the ATF to owners licensed by the ATF under the National Firearms Act. Implementing your proposal would require amending the NFA. I have been in favor of amending the NFA to reclassify semi-automatic firearms to the same level as machine guns. The NY Times had a nice article on this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/31/opinion/gun-control-that-actually-works.html
I recommend the detailed arguments in this blog:
https://www.zdziarski.com/blog/?p=6094
But, your blog persuades me that registration of firearms at the state level is an idea with a lot of merit. This opens up the possibility of a “states rights!” argument to persuade some conservatives to the idea of registration and licensing of firearms.
Thank you. That’s a helpful clarification and I appreciate the links.
I made a small emendation to the corresponding paragraph.
Avery: Having tried the states’ rights argument several times, I am convinced it will move the needle essentially not at all. Of all the conservative arguments that are offered as an ex post facto justification for their beliefs, the importance of states’ rights is, and have been since the Confederacy, the most shallow and obviously disbelieved. States rights as an appeal has never changed the opinion of even a tiny minority of conservatives on everything from drug policy to immigration policy (e.g. sanctuary cities) to abortion to gay marriage. Even in the past, slave-holding states were quite happy to battle at the federal level to protect their peculiar institution. They wax poetic about federalism, but federalism as a concept inherently has too much vagueness within it to get virtually anyone to change their mind, because if you are convinced that an issue is important, you are almost certainly going to be convinced that it is important enough to be a federal issue.
It is certainly the case that “states rights” is a dogwhistle, not an actual belief, among most of the conservative elite. But I do believe a percentage of rank-and-file voters really do believe in it, maybe just enough to have an electoral effect in the right circumstances.
More importantly, depending on the composition of the Supreme Court at the time posed, “states rights” could prevail as a legal argument even against bias. Alito and Thomas are frauds and would never actually allow a states rights argument prevail against their real agendas; but Gorsuch and Roberts are principled enough that they just might. Though Barrett and Kavanaugh are ciphers on this point, we don’t need to convince them. All we need is five votes. Three liberals and two conservatives takes the ruling.
My experience interacting with ordinary people is that even among them the rhetoric is puffery. It’s one of those thought-terminating cliches that sounds good and virtue signals Americana, but the problem is that everyone just puts the thing they want the feds to do as being the exception to the norm. That’s how the Tea Party could form (even Astroturfed) even after eight years of Bush trampling over the Constitution. Some people will feel uncomfortable at the cognitive dissonance when you point it out, but it’s not in my experience been a lasting hook.
But the point about the Court is fair, though not hugely relevant in this context. We have to get state-based gun rights through in the first place, which requires getting voters to care. Only then can the fact of federalism be used to defend a test case from a particular state against a Fourteenth Amendment challenge. By then the partisan configuration of the Court may have changed anyways.