You can watch an edited video of my live talk, with slides, for the Secular Humanist Society of New York earlier this month: How Would We Know Jesus Existed? But here I will provide a brief written methodological summary, for ease of reference and use.

My talk drew from my new book Jesus from Outer Space, which has an entire chapter on this point…because evidently it was needed. In my formal study, On the Historicity of Jesus, I took for granted that historians would already know what kinds of evidence we have, and thus expect to have, for historical persons whose existence we’re sure of. This has turned out a sadly false expectation. Historians shockingly often don’t know this at all. I did give two examples in OHJ, Alexander the Great (pp. 21-24) and Socrates (Ch. 8.2), and surveyed the matter using those points of reference. But people kept missing the point, and went on trying to find some example that somehow could “get passed” the point I made. They proposed Spartacus. Nope. They proposed Tiberius. Nope. They proposed Julius Caesar. Nope. They proposed Pontius Pilate. Nope. They tried Herod AgrippaHannibalCaligula, and Trajan, Hadrian, and Antoninus Pius. All backfired. Because we are confident in these men’s existence precisely because of all the evidence we have establishing it—literally none of which evidence we have for Jesus.

There is no person whose evidential status is actually comparable to Jesus, yet whom we are confident existed. The historicity of Apollonius of Tyana, for example, is actually sketchy. Historians aren’t that confident. And yet we still have more evidence he existed than we have for Jesus. Attempts to gainsay this fall into amateur mistakes no competent historian should be stumbling over, like counting dependent evidence as independent (it does not matter how many copies and retellings of and back-references to the same story we have, we only have the one story—that’s one item of evidence, not a hundred), counting non-evidence as evidence (Thallus never mentioned Jesus at all, and Pliny the Younger never mentioned him being a historical person), and counting hypothetical sources as actual. That it is possible the various Gospels got their different stories from tradents preserving oral tradition going back to eyewitnesses does not make it probable they did—we have abundant evidence they also just made stories up, whereas we have zero evidence they got any from sources. And that honestly should decide the matter of which is more likely. Evidence trumps hope.

We don’t do this for any other ancient person. So why are historians so desperate that they resort to this method when it’s Jesus? Anyone else, we have the evidence; we don’t have to make excuses. That we can’t make the honest case for Jesus that we can for all those other people should leave you less confident he existed, not more. And regardless of your confidence in that, you should still not be trumping up such bad evidence as we have. We don’t have anything unambiguous; and almost nothing independent of the Gospels. And the Gospels are the worst kind of evidence we could have. Some historians have been figuring this out: see Robyn Faith Walsh and the Gospels as Literature and my growing List of Historians Who Take Mythicism Seriously (and Ch. 5 of Proving History).

It’s just one step of logic from there to the obvious conclusion: having only the Gospels is like having (as we do) multiple biographical accounts of Hercules and his twelve labors—all more evidence of a mythical man than a real one (see, for example, my recent discussion in My Rank-Raglan Scoring for Osiris). “But we have the Epistles” doesn’t gain you much, because they fail to corroborate nearly everything in the Gospels, and what remains is strangely ambiguous, not at all a clear expression of Jesus having been more than an imaginary person learned of from revelation and hidden messages in Scripture (see OHJ, Chs. 9, 10, and 11). “But we have Josephus” (or Tacitus) should be too embarrassing an argument even to mention; even if they did write what their books now say about Jesus (and they probably didn’t), it still in all probability derives from the Gospels (or Christian informants relying on the Gospels). It is therefore not independent evidence. And dependent evidence has no value. A thousand copies of and references to a source still equals only the one source. A mere copy or back-reference cannot corroborate the original (beyond that it existed, which no one doubts of the Gospels).

In any event, a lot of people evidently need it spelled out more clearly: what would convince us Jesus existed? What is it that we are supposed to have, but don’t? This was the focus of my chapter on the point in JFOS, and my recent New York talk. The recorded talk briefed the most likely alternative theory of Christian origins, but it wasn’t a lecture on that, but rather on this other side of the coin: what we would actually need to be so sure Jesus existed, yet curiously don’t.

Getting Up to Speed

I will assume readers have adequately read up on the background of this debate. But for those who haven’t, you should start with the first complete peer-reviewed study of this question published in a hundred years, my post-doc work On the Historicity of Jesus (Sheffield-Phoenix 2014); and then the only other study yet published since, which essentially confirmed my results: Questioning the Historicity of Jesus by Raphael Lataster (Brill 2019). In any other science, replication (two corroborating studies getting the same result), and no peer-reviewed study getting a different result, would be sufficient to conclude that the traditional view is at least legitimately questionable. But emotion-driven dogmatism still resists this obvious conclusion. There are two other books to consider that contribute: my contractually peer-reviewed study of the methodology involved in Proving History: Bayes’s Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus (Prometheus 2012); and my brief colloquial summary of the results in Jesus from Outer Space (Pitchstone 2020), from which the lecture I am presently summarizing derives.

The gist is this: we cannot doubt the historical existence of any person, thing, or event, without having a plausible alternative explanation of how belief in its existence arose. But once we have one of those, it all depends on the evidence.

I often use the analogy of the “Roswell saucer crash”:

  • What Really Happened: In 1947 a guy found some sticks and tinfoil in the desert.
  • What Was Immediately Said to Have Happened: That this was debris from an alien spacecraft.
  • What Was Said to Have Happened within just Thirty Years: An entire flying saucer was recovered, complete with alien bodies that were autopsied by the government.

Here we have the analog sequence of events: the believers maintain the evolved myth (“an entire flying saucer was recovered, complete with alien bodies that were autopsied by the government”), without any doubt, and just repeat it as a given; but the myth started with something else—a real thing, but not the same thing.

On the most likely alternative account, Christianity did not start with a Galilean preacher named Jesus; it started with an imagined cosmic being becoming incarnate, getting killed to effect a magic spell on the universe, and rising back from the dead to prove his triumph; all of which known only by revelation (directly or through ancient prophecies). Then a lifetime later a historical man was invented to represent all this, and that then taught as “gospel.” Which is why no solid records of the original belief were preserved: that would have undermined the newfangled gospel (see How Did Christianity Switch to a Historical Jesus?, which discusses some of the other content of my lecture I won’t duplicate here).

There is a scientifically relevant anthropological analog to this sequence of events, and a relevant historical analog, and even a contextually relevant historical analog, all establishing proof of concept:

  • What Really Happened: In the 1920s the Cargo Cult movement spread across several Melanesian islands.
  • What Was Immediately Said to Have Happened: Visions & spirit communications came to various shamans imparting new teachings.
  • What Was Said to Have Happened within just Thirty Years: Instead of visions and spirit communications coming to many different shamans, an actual singular savior figure came to each island to impart all those teachings. In some sects this became John Frum; in others, Tom Navy; in yet others, even Prince Phillip, the queen consort of England, unlike John and Tom an actual historical man whose son is now king, yet still who never came to that island or did or said any of the things claimed.
  • Yet no such persons ever existed. Sure, like Haile Selassie, Prince Phillip was real, but in the case of John and Tom, whole historical men were invented, and came to be solely believed the founders of their sects, when in every case, originally the religion began by revelation to a multitude of “apostles” and not any single person. And this transformation happened in the same exact time-frame as Christianity: revelations in the 30s; then assigned to an invented historical founder within thirty years.
  • And if it wasn’t for anthropologists, we wouldn’t know that. By luck, actual scientists were studying these Melanesian cultures when all this began, so we have independent, objective, third-party observations of that—including such oddities as shamans putting their ears to telegraph poles to hear the spirit-messages that would become their religion. Needless to say, we didn’t get any such luck with Christianity: no third party observations of its origin (much less by scientists) were made (or at least preserved for us to even know about them). Imagine if this were where we were with the Cargo Cults: all we had were the later belief-claims of John Frum and Tom Navy, and all original accounts lost and not even referenced (as they conflicted with the evolved belief). We would be in exactly the situation we are with Jesus. That’s how easily it could have happened.

Likewise:

  • What Really Happened: Saboteurs in 1811 invented the legend of Ned Ludd to justify their anti-industrialization movement (accordingly known as the Luddites).
  • What Was Immediately Said to Have Happened: Ned Ludd was a real man who sabotaged a factory in 1779.
  • Which Was Just Thirty Years after the Alleged fact: And yet it was widely believed the story was true and Nedd Ludd a real man. It was never questioned until recently. But late 18th century England remains very well documented; even newspapers exist from the time, as well as extensive collections of memoirs and correspondences, and a huge supply of commercial and government documents. Record of Ludd should exist. It does not. But imagine if that century hadn’t been so well-documented; that it was as poorly documented in extant remains as the first century. We would be in exactly the situation we are with Jesus. That’s how easily it could have happened.

And finally there is the example of Osiris, the resurrected personal savior god popularized from Egypt, a province adjacent to Judea and populated with traveling Jews, before and during the very time Christianity arose. We are directly told by one devotee, Plutarch (in his essay On Isis and Osiris), that in public stories (his “Gospels”) Osiris is represented as a historical Pharaoh, with a life on Earth, complete with named family, teachings, and adventures, but in private to true initiates it was explained that that was all myth, that no such person lived on Earth, but the real Osiris dies and rises in outer space below the moon, to where he descends from the heavens above, becomes incarnate, is killed by sky demons, and is resurrected and ascends back to glory, thereafter able to confer eternal life upon followers baptized in his name, who are thus “reborn” by symbolically sharing in his death and resurrection through that baptism.

This is basically Christianity. Except with an Egyptian skin rather than Jewish. Judaize it, replace all the Egyptian stuff with Jewish stuff, and presto, it is Christianity. Yet Osiris never existed as what we would consider a historical man—he was an imaginary being, imagined to have really died in outer space. Yet his devotees publicly preached his historical existence. This is a contextually relevant proof of concept. Osiris went from a celestial being, whose incarnation and death and resurrection were likewise mytho-celestial, to a historical being, whose incarnation and death and resurrection happened historically on Earth. If this could happen to Osiris cult, it could happen to Jesus cult. The only question is—did it?

There were in fact a lot of these religions. It was fashionable to have a historicized celestial savior deity. Practically every culture had one but the Jews. Christianity looks like they simply got around to inventing one. And like many others, it became more popular abroad than at home. In every case, these mythical-yet-historicized gods have the same structural role:

  • They were all “savior gods”
  • They were all the “son” of God (or “daughter”)
  • They all undergo a “passion” (patheôn)
  • They all obtained victory over death, which they share with their followers
  • They all have stories about them set in human history on earth
  • Yet none of them ever actually existed

Why would we assume Jesus is the sole exception, the only one who actually existed? As I’ve explained before (and do again in JFOS), Jesus is not like just any historical person mentioned—a teacher or administrator or politician or general, or that general’s wife or servant—he is a heavily-mythologized and worshiped savior deity, a magical culture-hero. Those people tended not to exist. So we need better evidence for any one of them, than we’d need for just any random person spoken of.

This should not be surprising. Religious founders are often mythical, yet turned into and regarded as real historical people: Moses; Romulus; Theseus; Osiris; Dionysus; Mithras; Inanna; Zalmoxis; Adonis; Attis; King Arthur. Why would it be so weird that Jesus should be among them? And how could we tell the difference? How would we know Jesus was real any more than they were? What evidence would we need?

This should not be confused with the separate question of, “How would that evidence survive for us to have it today?” As with John Frum or Ned Ludd or the Roswell saucer, it was logically possible that we’d never know—that none of the evidence we have telling us they were made up survived. But explaining why we don’t have that evidence would not make them any more likely to be historical. This is the real problem. And you can’t make that problem go away by having a good account of why we don’t have the evidence we need to be sure someone existed. We still don’t have it.

What We Could Have Had

It’s important to recognize the timeline, especially in relation to average expected lifespans back then:

The idea that this conversion of a celestial, revelatory being into a historical preacher happened too quickly simply isn’t true. We already saw that thirty years, the same time it would have taken in Christianity, witnessed much the same thing happen in even better-documented eras (Roswell; John Frum; Ned Ludd). And we simply don’t have the records (unlike we do for Roswell, Frum, and Ludd). That it could happen in the face of far better documentation and universal literacy means it is even more likely to happen in eras with a mere fraction of those assets—like the first century. So we need evidence to be sure Jesus is any different than his parallels, ancient or modern. Better evidence than we have.

In my lecture (and the corresponding chapter in JFOS) I present actual quotes of people today claiming we have better evidence for Jesus than (fill in the blank); I then list the evidence disproving this. The examples are instructive, because they reveal not only what kinds of evidence we could have had, but also what kinds of evidence we need to have—because the only reason we are confident these people existed is because we have that kind of evidence. And yet we have none of it for Jesus. I’ll just quickly survey the list:

Socrates

  • We know the names of numerous eyewitnesses who wrote books about him, including at least sixteen of his disciples. 
  • We know of not even one such book for Jesus. 
  • We even know the titles of some these books, and have a number of paraphrases and quotations from them.
  • Two of them we actually have (Xenophon and Plato). 
  • And they were written within a few years of his death, not nearly half a century later; and in his own country and language (the Gospels, remember, were written in a foreign land and language). 
  • And we even have an eyewitness third-party account written during his lifetime: Aristophanes, The Clouds.
  • We know of not even one such account for Jesus. 
  • Indeed we have many contemporaries attesting to Socrates, spanning four modern volumes (Gabriele Giannantoni, Socratis et Socraticorum Reliquiae 1990).
  • We have none for Jesus—other than as a celestial being. 
  • We have quotations from many historians of Socrates, using written sources about Socrates from his own time: e.g. Idomeneus, On the Followers of Socrates.
  • We have none for Jesus—only repeaters of the Gospels.
  • And yet Socrates wrote nothing himself and there was no global Church of Socrates to preserve records of him. And still we have vastly better evidence he existed than we have for Jesus.

Alexander the Great

  • We have abundant contemporary coins, inscriptions, tablets, and other physical objects from and about him (we even have his de facto death certificate, printed in clay, from the archives of Persia).
  • We have many contemporary and eyewitness sources discussing him (including contemporary texts inscribed in those same clay archives that date from his actual lifetime).
  • And we have numerous credible, detailed historical accounts, referencing contemporary and eyewitness sources.
  • Even Arrian wrote some five hundred years later, but used only three eyewitness historical accounts, described them and why they are good sources, and explained his method of using them.
  • We have none of these things for Jesus.

Roman Emperors

  • We have abundant contemporary coins, inscriptions, papyri, and in some cases even inscribed personal objects from and about them.
  • In many cases we have their own writings, and references to yet other writings of theirs.
  • We have many contemporary and eyewitness sources discussing them.
  • We have numerous credible, detailed historical accounts, which reference contemporary or eyewitness sources.
  • We have none of these things for Jesus.

Spartacus

  • Sallust’s Histories covered Spartacus. He was born 10 years before the Spartacan war and wrote 30 years after, and shared the Senate with those who fought Spartacus.
  • Cicero mentions Spartacus in Response to the Haruspices and Against Verres. He served during the Spartacan war.
  • Diodorus covered Spartacus in his Library of History. He was a contemporary. 
  • Varro mentioned him (as quoted by Sosipater Charisius in Grammatical Arts 1.133). He actually fought Spartacus.
  • Plus many later credible histories (within 100-200 years) using contemporary records and sources.
  • We have none of these things for Jesus.

Hannibal

  • We have the epitaph of Quintus Fabius Maximus. Who fought Hannibal.
    • Carved in stone at his death in 205 B.C. Boasts of his victories against Hannibal, e.g., “he besieged and recaptured Tarentum and the strong-hold of Hannibal.”
  • We have the epitaph of Felsnas Larth. Who was a soldier of Hannibal.
    • Mentions his service under him. 
  • Many credible, detailed accounts by later historians who cite and quote from many writings of eyewitnesses to the war.
  • We have none of these things for Jesus.
  • Indeed we have a credible, detailed account from Polybius, a contemporary.
    • He was a friend of the family of Scipio Africanus, who defeated Hannibal. 
    • He was ambassador to Hannibal’s country after the war. 
    • And he relied on documents and eyewitnesses. For example…
      • He interviewed King Massinissa, a Roman ally who fought Hannibal.
      • He interviewed Gaius Laelius, a personal friend and companion of Africanus during the war.
      • He quotes from Scipio Africanus’s letter to King Philip V of Macedon regarding his personal dealings with Hannibal.
      • And he quotes a bronze inscription erected by Hannibal himself.
  • We have none of this for Jesus.

Pontius Pilate

  • We have a historical account from a contemporary who dealt with his actions in the political arena (Philo of Alexandria, ambassador of the Jews to Rome).
  • We have credible, detailed historical accounts from historians relying on contemporary sources (Josephus; Tacitus).
  • We have his own autograph inscription in stone.
  • We have none of these things for Jesus.

Herod Agrippa

  • We have multiple inscriptions and coins attesting to Agrippa’s existence.
  • We have a contemporary account (from Philo of Alexandria).
  • We have a credible, detailed account from a historian writing a generation later, using firsthand, non-mythological sources (Josephus).
    • Josephus even personally knew Agrippa’s son, and clearly describes him and his father as real people, an actual father and son. 
  • We have none of these things for Jesus.

Caiaphas

  • We have his inscribed casket.
  • We have credible, researched accounts in Josephus.
  • Also he was never a revelatory superbeing, mythologized hero, or cosmic savior lord.
  • His earliest records don’t depict him as someone only met in dreams and visions.
  • And his earliest historical accounts don’t describe him in just the same respects as persons who usually didn’t exist (like Moses, Osiris, or Romulus).

Consider even Apollonius of Tyana, the heavily mythologized historical person we arguably have the least evidence for:

  • Maria Dzielska, in her study Apollonius of Tyana in Legend and History, outright admits “a historian assuming that Apollonius of Tyana existed solely as a hero of an extensive legend…would not stray far from the truth.” So much for being confident.
  • Except that: there is evidence external to the mythological Life written of him (by Philostratus) over a century later. 
  • Dzielska documents evidence of a cult attesting to Apollonius being a historical personage before that Life was written.
  • The best example: Lucian of Samosata says Apollonius was so famous that every reader would know of him, and that he met a student of one of his Disciples, saying “Alexander of Abonuteichos” studied under “a man of Tyana by birth, one of those who had been associates [suggenomenôn] of the famous [panu] Apollonius and eyewitnesses [eidotôn] to all his tricks,” clearly establishing Apollonius as a historical person, widely known as such, and his eyewitness associates likewise.
  • We don’t have even this for Jesus. And still we are not that confident in Apollonius. No one freaks out at the suggestion he might not have existed. And yet even he we have better evidence for than Jesus.

We don’t doubt personages we have no reason to doubt (mundane officials, family, and the like). We only doubt those we have reason to doubt—like mythologized superheroes. Then, and only then, do we need better evidence than just the existence of stories about them. And for every person we are confident existed, we have that evidence. Therefore, that we don’t have that for Jesus should leave us no longer so confident he existed. It’s as simple as that. Making excuses for why we don’t have that evidence does not change his epistemic status. We still don’t have the evidence.

Conclusion

So, in general, what could we have had:

  • Possibly nothing. Then we couldn’t know. Jesus would simply be unlikely to be historical in the same way all other savior heroes were. He’d be John Frum. Ned Ludd. Moses. Osiris. The Roswell saucer. Maybe he existed; but we couldn’t say for sure, just as we can’t for any other savior heroes.
  • But probably the actual first letters. As we have for other mythologized historical persons, from Alexander the Great to Ras Tafari, we’d have more mundane memoirs, correspondence, recollections. They’d clearly (not ambiguously) indicate their subject to be a recent historical man. They’d include examples from and disputes about his life, his teachings, the accusations against him. For more examples of what we could expect to have found in the earliest letters, see my discussions across Chapter 11 of On the Historicity of Jesus.
  • For example: in Galatians 1 Paul could have indicated he meant not a cultic brother but an actual one (e.g. “James, the brother of the Lord according to the flesh” rather than just any brother of the Lord, which Paul elsewhere says described any baptized Christian); in Romans 1 Paul could have indicated he meant an actual descendant of David in the ordinary way (he could have simply said Jesus was, indeed, “a descendant of David,” or even better, have added how they knew that, e.g. “according to his family records,” instead of what he did say, which is weird—and wholly indeterminate); in 1 Thessalonians 2 Paul could have said something that he (in this case) would actually have believed (like that Jesus was “killed by the leading men of Judea,” and not by “the Jews,” and he wouldn’t have referred to a fall of Jerusalem that hadn’t happened yet, and so on).
  • Less likely but possibly inscriptions and papyri. Even the godless Diogenes of Oenoanda erected the “gospel” of his hero, Epicurus, in stone. Faithful Jews carved their private scripture, the Revelation of Gabriel, in stone. The Letter of Mara bar Serapion is an example (forged or real) of a third party commenting on Jesus as a historical person (it just doesn’t likely date to the first century). A lot we know about ancient religious beliefs and persons comes from actual epitaphs: stone tributes to the dead, often describing what they believed, prized, or valued, and Christian believers (or even just inspired contemporaries) could have left us some. There are many ways we could have had this kind of evidence for Jesus. It is true none such is expected. But that doesn’t make the fact go away that, unlike for many historical persons claimed to have less evidence than Jesus, we still just don’t have anything like this for Jesus.
  • Likewise, contemporary or researched historical accounts. The Gospels are mythographs. We could have instead had researched histories, actual or in quotation or paraphrase, by writers consulting various contemporary sources. They could have given credible accounts rather than fantastical ones. They could have named or identified sources. This is what we have for most everyone else, from Pilate and Caiaphas to Agrippa and Socrates.
  • For example: in Pliny the Younger’s letter on the Christians, he would have related what he knew of Christian origins from his father’s History of Rome, which devoted an entire volume to the year in which Nero supposedly blamed the burning of Rome on the Christians, and before that event his father would have had access to relevant provincial dispatches. But the Younger Pliny says he knew nothing about Christians—which means the Elder Pliny never mentioned them, which means the tale that Nero persecuted them for the fire is false. But this didn’t have to be. The Elder could have mentioned them, this could even have been Tacitus’s source, and the Younger could then have related what his father said about them—and this could have been detailed enough to demonstrate Jesus was known to be historical independently of the Gospels, and by a third party source who would know, much as we have references like that for the other historical people I just surveyed.
  • Likewise: in Josephus’s accounts of the Jewish War he plausibly relates the stories of four Jesus Christs: The Samaritan, The Egyptian, The Impostor, and Theudas. Josephus says each was equating themselves with Jesus (Joshua) and making veiled claims to be the Christ (Messiah). That is, they were claiming to be the new Joshua (the same name as Jesus), the fabled conqueror of the Holy Land, and the messiah (a christos, even though Josephus conspicuously avoids the word) who would accomplish God’s plan. The Samaritan, ascended like Joshua (Deut. 27:12) on Mount Gerizim. Theudas, like Joshua (Josh. 3), would part the Jordan. The Egyptian, like Joshua (Josh. 5), would miraculously fell the walls of a great city. The Impostor, like Joshua, would lead the people in the wilderness to paradise (see my discussions of these fellows in OHJ, index). Josephus could have related the story of our Jesus the same way. Indeed, had he really known of him, our Jesus would have received the same study. And it would thus have included plausible historical details not found in the Gospels, implying independent sources and an objective outsider view (see, for example, Reading Josephus on James). But alas, we get no such account of Jesus from him, or any historian—not even Eusebius could find any to quote or cite.

In short, we could have had what we have that convinces us all those other people existed. Jesus could even have written things (the way we know a lot of historical people existed, from Paul to Josephus). And so on. But the fact is, we don’t have any of those things—and yet Jesus is more like figures who didn’t exist than those who did. So because we have no evidence establishing him to be an exception to that trend, we have to assume he, too, didn’t exist. Or at least honestly doubt it. Or at the very least admit it’s doubtable.

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